Ahead of their cliffhanger summit in Busan on Thursday, US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are facing an anxious world. Their highly sought-after face-to-face — their first since 2019 — comes at a time of fragile trade détente, increasing tariffs, and deteriorating geopolitics.
Both presidents arrive with big agendas and even bigger expectations. From trade wars and holding TikTok to rare earth exports, the fentanyl epidemic, and Taiwan’s status — Thursday’s session may decide the course of economic stability across the globe.
A Fragile Trade Truce Under Pressure
Washington and Beijing have been locked in a tit-for-tat tariff war for months, causing global markets to shudder. The U.S. slapped large tariffs on Chinese goods, leading Beijing to retaliate with export bans on rare earth minerals — a critical part of everything from smartphones to fighter jets.
Even last week, Trump indicated a 100% tariff hike from November 1 if China did not relax rare earth curbs. Beijing responded by indicating that it may delay its export curbs by one year, suggesting some softening.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that diplomats had negotiated a “substantial framework” for a trade agreement, including new purchases of U.S. soybeans — an election concern for Trump’s base.
But they fear it. “Any U.S.-China trade détente is going to be brief,” warned Ryan Hass, a Brookings Institution China expert. “Both sides are keeping their economic strangulations loaded — prepared to pull the trigger in case of talks breakdowns.”
Rare Earths and Fentanyl: Trump’s Top Priorities
Trade will dominate headlines, but one of Trump’s other pressing priorities is the fentanyl crisis. The opioid fuels America’s overdose plague, and Washington holds China responsible for supplying vital precursor chemicals.
“I anticipate reducing tariffs in exchange for meaningful Chinese action on fentanyl,” Trump said before he left for Busan.
He also hopes to persuade Xi to ease export restrictions on rare earths, an industry controlled by China. The U.S. has been in a haste to diversify its supply chain, obtaining new mineral deals with Japan, Australia, and Thailand.
“China’s control of rare earths gives it huge leverage,” noted Scott Kennedy, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Trump needs concessions to avoid escalation — but Xi knows his advantage.”
TikTok, Taiwan, and the Global Stage
TikTok’s future — the social media giant threatened with a U.S. blackout unless its Chinese owners sell out — is also on the table. Trump stated “a deal might be finalized” during his one-on-one with Xi. American Treasury officials assert that both parties have already come to an agreement on a preliminary deal.
Beyond commerce, Taiwan is a delicate flash point. While Trump minimized its addition to the talks, analysts expect Xi to seize the moment. Beijing views the self-governing island as a breakaway province and Washington as its most vital defense partner.
“Xi will likely push Trump to reaffirm the U.S. opposition to Taiwan independence,” Deborah Elms of the Hinrich Foundation said. “That would be a diplomatic win for Beijing.”
Meanwhile, tensions persist in Taipei as Trump’s shifting stance on the island has raised eyebrows. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reassured allies that Washington would not “trade away Taiwan,” but concerns remain. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-heads-south-korea-face-trade-talks-north-korean-missiles-2025-10-28/
Russia-Ukraine War: The Unspoken Agenda
Trump will also urge Xi to use his leverage over Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine. Beijing has been Moscow’s largest energy customer, buying over $200 billion worth of oil, gas, and coal since the war began.
“Xi has a great influence over Putin,” Trump explained a week ago, suggesting potential backroom diplomacy. But Beijing has criticized recent U.S. sanctions on Russian energy companies as “unjustified.”
Who’s Got the Upper Hand?
Experts are divided over who stands to gain more from the summit. Trump projects optimism — “I think it’ll be a great meeting for both,” he wrote on Truth Social — but Xi’s position appears stronger.
China’s endurance of the tariff wars has shown the world that it has the capability to match Washington lockstep. “Xi is not just playing the hand he’s been dealt,” wrote Rush Doshi, author of The Long Game: China’s Grand Strategy to Displace American Order. “He’s playing the player — and he believes Trump will fold.”
Expectations: Hope Meets Reality
Despite both sides being expected to make a symbolic deal to prevent economic meltdown, few expect major breakthroughs. “I have modest hopes for this meeting,” Hutong Research’s Shan Guo said. “Whatever happens, trade and tech tensions will remain.”
Still, any progress — symbolic or otherwise — would calm stormy markets and signal the resumption of negotiations after months of silence.
Everybody, for now, is watching Busan. Will the Trump-Xi summit yield a temporary peace or further entrench the fault lines between the world’s two biggest economies?
The response, a diplomat wisecracked, “depends not on what’s agreed — but on what both sides choose to do when the cameras are gone.”
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