Japan and China are now in a very sharp confrontation in the wake of Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s comment that “a Chinese attack on Taiwan would be a survival-threatening situation under Japanese law,” which she made in an offhand remark in parliament. Japan has made a new statement, which is not a change in formal policy but clearly angered Beijing.
China responded immediately with a broad wave of punitive measures. It counseled Chinese citizens against going to Japan, warned students not to study in Japan, and suspended all seafood imports from Japan. China sent coast guard ships to contested waters and trended nationalist sentiment throughout its media apparatus. In a letter signed by China’s UN ambassador, Japan’s comment – referred to as a “provocation” – is a clear reference to militarism.
China fears changing military posture in the region
China’s response reflects its deep insecurities and anxieties about China’s military posture. Beijing worries about defense cooperation among its US-allied nations, and no country causes greater anxiety than Japan. Japan, a symbol from China’s imperial history and narrative of humiliation, is viewed through a different lens. Takaichi’s remark, even though not a formal policy, is perceived as a strategic challenge to China’s ascent in the region.
Japan’s security policy is slowly evolving
Tokyo has gradually strayed away from the hard pacifism it adopted after World War II. Defense spending is increasing, and Japan has acquired counterstrike capabilities. This has accelerated amid a surge in Chinese military activity in and near Taiwan. Takaichi is a prominent nationalist, and she adds clear Taiwan language and is aware of the need for Japan to deepen its security ties to Washington.
Beijing is trying to pin down Japan’s new leader
Analysts believe Beijing wishes to apply political pressure on Takaichi early in her term, making her hesitant to deepen Japan’s defense posture. Some Japanese observers believe China is attempting to politically trap her to make her appear weak if she scales back her statement or reckless if she does not. For Beijing, this moment puts the first stamp on how Japan will behave under its new leader.
China is trying to set an example for other countries in Asia. It is trying to demonstrate that even mild verbal support will be punished by consequences. China realizes the commitment of the American security umbrella now appears tenuous. If Japan is admonished and pulls back, other countries may be deterred from a more assertive approach to Taiwan. If, however, Japan stands firm, it may embolden other countries.
Uncertainty for Taiwan is increasing
For Taiwan, these tensions are worrying. Its military reliance on regional support strengthens with China’s military might. If Taiwan were to lose Japan’s displayed political willingness, Taiwan would become more politically isolated than it is now. As China attempts to assert its suzerainty in East Asia, seizing the Taiwan narrative becomes an integral part of its assertion to a unipolar Asia.
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