With the budget showing a large fiscal deficit, stagnating oil prices, and growing cracks in the ambitious Vision 2030 plan, none of that seems to be dampening the mood in Riyadh. For Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, economic pressure is secondary. What matters most is that he is securing the most significant geopolitical gains in modern Saudi history.
With the development of ties with China, deeper defense cooperation with Pakistan, and, most recently, a remarkable reception in Washington, MBS has taken steps toward diversifying links with other countries. Everything that MBS wanted-outstanding fighter jets, state-of-the-art technology, a nuclear cooperation deal, and most important, Major Non-NATO Ally status-was granted during his White House visit.
But what did he offer in return? And why is this deal causing alarm in Israel and raising serious questions about US foreign policy?
From Pariah to Power Player
In 2018, Saudi operatives murdered journalist Jamal Khashoggi. Western governments roundly condemned the killing, and MBS became an international outcast. Joe Biden even promised to make Saudi Arabia a “pariah” and halt arms sales.
But then global politics changed. The war in Ukraine made it imperative for the United States to turn to Saudi Arabia for help in stabilizing oil prices. The consequence was a slow but sure rapprochement: by 2022, Biden was in Riyadh, easing restrictions and reviving defense ties.
Under Trump, this relationship has reached a new level. MBS received a red-carpet welcome at the White House complete with a Marine Corps band and a 21-gun salute — an honour normally accorded to heads of state. In return, the Saudis announced “$1 trillion” in future investments – a figure widely viewed as exaggerated but politically effective.
What Saudi Arabia got from Washington
During this latest visit, Saudi Arabia won several key concessions:
Approval to purchase F-35 fighter jets, previously restricted in the Middle East
Nearly 300 Abrams tanks
Access to advanced semiconductor technologies
A US-Saudi civilian nuclear agreement
A formal designation as a Major Non-NATO Ally
It is one of the broadest defence packages that Washington has ever extended to Riyadh.
But US intelligence officials have warned that closer Saudi-China ties risk exposing sensitive American military technology. Despite that concern, the deal went ahead.
Why Israel is alarmed
For a long time, Israel enjoyed a singular advantage in the Middle East: possession of the stealth F-35. But that edge could disappear.
Israeli defence officials have identified several risks:
Loss of stealth mobility: Israeli jets would no longer be able to move in the region anonymously.
Security risks: A future political shift in Saudi Arabia might turn these weapons against Israel.
Strategic proximity: F-35s could be deployed within minutes of Israel’s airspace.
Weaker escorts: Israel’s F-15s would be outmatched.
Regional precedent: If Saudi Arabia gets F-35s, Turkey may demand them too.
Legal conflict: US law stipulates Israel’s “qualitative military edge” — now under threat.
Technology leak: Israel helped improve the F-35 – and fears those upgrades could reach rivals.
For Jerusalem, this was a deal seen as a fundamental breach of trust. To some, it looked like political revenge; to others, business interests simply prevailed over strategic commitments.
The Trump–Saudi business web
The controversy deepens when it comes to private deals. Trump’s business network in Saudi Arabia has exploded since 2018, key examples being:
A $100 billion real-estate partnership in Jeddah
A Maldives luxury project with a Saudi-linked developer
Saudi sovereign wealth fund investments funneled into a $2 billion fund run by Jared Kushner
Takeover of video-game giant EA, in which Saudi PIF and Kushner’s firm are involved
Lucrative golf tournaments held at Trump properties and financed by the Saudi-backed LIV Golf League
These deals raise concerns about potential conflicts of interest. Critics warn that US national security decisions may be influenced by private financial relationships.
The bigger picture
Saudi Arabia’s latest diplomatic victory reshapes Middle Eastern politics. Washington’s alliance with Riyadh is now deeper than it has been at any point in the past decade. But it comes with consequences:
Israel feels abandoned.
US defence officials fear technology leaks to China.
Arms sales may be opposed by Congress:
Regional military balances could dramatically change. The long-term consequence depends on what comes next: whether Congress blocks the sale, whether Saudi Arabia joins the Abraham Accords, and how Israel recalibrates its own strategy. For now, one thing is clear: MBS has placed Saudi Arabia at the hub of Middle Eastern geopolitics, and the reverberations will long be felt far beyond Riyadh.
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