Defence, energy and trade to dominate Modi–Putin talks next week

India strengthens strategic bets as President Vladimir Putin visits New Delhi for a high-stakes summit that will test India’s strategic balance. Russia’s Vladimir Putin prepares for his summit with the Prime Minister of India; there has been increased anxiety and pressure from the United States and other Western nations regarding the purchase of Russian oil by India. In the midst of this pressure, however, India continues to focus on their long-term energy security even in difficult and shaky times for many countries around the world.

Additionally, Indian decision-makers want to ensure that the Kremlin provides strong defence commitments to India at this summit, and as a result, there will be intense negotiations regarding defence cooperation between the two countries. Thus, the expectation is that during this summit, there will be a significant re-establishment of the much-troubled economic relationship between the two capitals. In general, there will be a great deal of anticipation regarding the next steps by India after this summit.

Defence expectations rise as India evaluates urgent needs

It is likely that defense cooperation will dominate discussions between both parties. Further, India intends to expand its long-range Air Defense capability and, therefore, has approved the Indian Air Force to acquire five new S-400 squadrons (the S-400 systems were used with resounding success during the operations Sindoor ). Russian officials have put together a proposal for India for the full technology transfer of the Su-57.

India will very likely review this proposal thoroughly prior to making any decision. Both sides are also accelerating deliveries of delayed defence systems. Additionally, Russia proposes establishing S-500 production lines in India, with both nations building them together.

At present, India operates three operational S-400 squadrons. Russia plans to deliver the last two operational units to India next year. Therefore, India is considering increasing the total number of operational squadrons to six; therefore, the expansion of India’s early intercept capability will be enhanced substantially. In addition, Russia is proposing the establishment of a complete Maintenance, Repair, and Operations (MRO) hub in India.

This would greatly decrease India’s dependency on foreign entities for servicing critical Air Defence capabilities. Furthermore, India has also approved an additional 300 missiles for the S-400 system for purchase. The recent hostilities along the borders have necessitated an urgent request to build up inventories of ammunition.

Economic ambitions grow as India strengthens strategic bets on stability

Both sides expect to hold a dialogue on further diversifying trade relations at the summit. The expectation from India’s perspective is that Russia will strengthen its export routes to Russian markets. Russia has recently lowered the non-tariff trade barriers that existed for pharmaceuticals until now. The overall level of agricultural trade between the two sides is increasing steadily.

Russia is looking for India to be a bigger player in the development of Far East development projects. Potentially, in the near future, there will be joint work on energy extraction from the Arctic shelf. Russia offered India additional discounts on oil. There has been a general decrease in the world price of oil, and thus, India has cut back on imports due to the fluctuations. However, both governments desire stable and reliable energy agreements for the long term.

The trade deficit still remains very heavily in Russia’s favour. India would like to see greater access to international markets for textiles and pharmaceutical products, while, conversely, Russia would like to see sustained growth in imports from the Indian manufacturing industry. President Putin has called on Russian ministers to correct trade weaknesses, stating that India has huge potential, particularly following an October conference. New Delhi has likewise stated its desire for closer collaboration with the Indian private sector. Finally, both nations will discuss the potential for transacting in national currencies.

Strategic signalling shapes global messaging

The Kremlin anticipates numerous agreements to be made during the summit. The Ministry of External Affairs of India mentioned that the summit allows for the conduct of strategic reviews on issues of mutual concern. The bilateral discussions with the Indian delegation led by Prime Minister Modi will concentrate on the current regional and international issues, said the Indian Foreign Minister. India views Russia as a strong partner despite any pressure exerted against that partnership. The Indian Defence Secretary, Rajesh Kumar Singh, said, We have always had Russia’s support through both good times and bad times, and we will not terminate our defence co-operation with them anytime soon. Overall, the summit further clarifies India’s global strategic messaging, enhances its deterrent capabilities, strengthens its energy security, and enhances the opportunities for diplomatic engagement and dialogue.

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