It is estimated that India’s population will stabilize between 1.8-1.9 billion by 2080, which would be one of the most important demographic shifts in India’s history. Indeed, India’s current TFR is below the replacement level of 2.1, and this portends a long-term slowdown in population growth driven by education, development, and social change.
“The TFR of India has declined to 1.9 from 3.5 in the year 2000,” he said. According to Anil Chandran, general secretary of the IASP, this is a “drastic decline” that reflects widespread changes in how families make decisions on marriage and childbearing in India.
Education and development are pushing fertility down.
Demographers argue that falling fertility is closely linked to rising development measures. Rising female literacy, greater access to schooling, and changing professional aspirations are reshaping family choices.
Chandran says that today, the TFR among the educated groups is between 1.5 and 1.8, while the fertility of the illiterate groups stays above 3. With increasing education, more couples delay marriage, plan their pregnancies, and want smaller families.
The wider availability of birth control methods has strengthened this trend. “Couples today are better informed and exercise greater control over when and how many children to have,” Chandran says.
Kerala, West Bengal show the way to the future
Kerala gives an early example of this transition. The state attained replacement-level fertility as early as 1987–1989 and now records a TFR of about 1.5.
The case of the decline of West Bengal has been even faster. As per the SRS Statistical Report 2023, the TFR of West Bengal has slumped to 1.3 from 1.7 in 2013, recording an 18% decline within a decade and placing the state among the regions with the lowest fertility in India, alongside Tamil Nadu and only marginally above Delhi.
Population will peak before 2080
IASP estimates that India’s population will peak at 1.8–1.9 billion by around 2080, after which it will stop growing and begin to stabilize. “All estimates show that India’s maximum population will remain below two billion,” Chandran says.
This projection contradicts the runaway population growth fears and points towards a long-run demographic balancing.
A new challenge: An ageing India
As fertility falls, life expectancy continues to rise. More people are living beyond the age of 60 and creating new pressures on families and public policy.
According to Chandran, rapid ageing will pose serious challenges in the coming decades, especially with increased migration of younger workers to urban centres and abroad. The policymakers are now exploring solutions, including elderly day-care centres and community-based support systems.
A turning point in India’s demographic story
Established in 1971, IASP works with UNFPA, the Population Council, and the Population Foundation of India. It says India is experiencing an unprecedented demographic transition. The combination of rising literacy, economic mobility, delayed marriages, and enhanced reproductive autonomy has placed India on a long-term trajectory of population stabilisation.
The next challenge will be the social and economic implications of an ageing population future which India is now moving toward much faster than expected.
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