At the recent Delhi Summit, Modi and Putin warmly greeted one another as a means of denoting confidence in the face of geopolitical uncertainty. Conversely, the tariffs imposed by Trump put a strain on the relationship between India and the United States. As a consequence, many observers were closely monitoring every gesture between the two leaders in an attempt to draw strategic conclusions about India’s attempt to balance itself between the powers involved. Moreover, despite the increased pressure placed on Moscow by the West, Putin re-emphasised that both nations can establish a partnership. Therefore, both leaders have been able to demonstrate they can act independently from each other as the geopolitical environment changes.
Summit optics sharpen India’s strategic autonomy message
Russia has continued to maintain stable relations around the world, including with India, despite sanctions. Modi has demonstrated that India can operate independently of the United States by disregarding Trump’s criticism of India’s purchase of Russian oil. For example, Trump has publicly stated that India’s purchase of discounted crude oil from Russia has created additional revenue for the Russian government, reinforcing their ability to respond to the ongoing Ukrainian-Russian conflict. Consequently, Washington imposed high tariffs on Indian products in response to perceived support for Russia.
India’s strong message
Analysts have been able to attribute the refusals by many nations to purchase Russian crude oil to their disagreement with the policies of the Trump administration. As such, India was strategically utilising visual images from the Summit to communicate its independence. During the summit, Putin promised that Russia would provide “uninterrupted” fuel supply to India, which will support India’s growth. Additionally, at the Summit, both sides confirmed their commitment to expanding cooperation in a number of areas. For example, despite the fact that Russia is no longer India’s primary arms supplier, defence collaboration between the nations will continue to take place. Additionally, given the fact that military equipment deliveries have missed deadlines, India has diversified its supplier base.
There are also many concerns surrounding the ability of Indian refiners to continue purchasing Russian crude oil due to the sanctions on Russian oil companies; as a result, many Indian refiners have suspended purchasing Russian crude oil until further notice. Modi has acknowledged that India has trade imbalances with many countries and has called for structural corrections in the imbalances in advance of any new trade agreements. Ultimately, while the relation between both nations is still strong, the existing economic ties are limited at this time.
Strategic signals grow sharper amid global recalibration
In his speech after the summit, Modi stated that India continues to support peace and that India has taken a careful and balanced position on the conflict in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Trump did not speak about the summit. This created a perception that Washington is embarrassed by the summit, and many analysts indicated that this will create heartburn in Trump’s national security apparatus. President Lula of Brazil mocked Trump for his self-indulgent foreign aspirations, stating, “Trump – not elected to be emperor.”
Hence, the way Trump approached the summit with India will be seen as an indication of how much weaker U.S. diplomacy is with India and other countries because of the U.S. trade tariffs on India.
Also, the issues that existed with visas and with Pakistan further exacerbated the tension between the two countries. The observers stated that Trump consistently underestimates the importance of India in the geopolitical landscape. The summit showed that India can withstand pressure, and it reinforced India’s commitment to remaining an independent, autonomous nation.
Although Russia remains India’s primary source of military supplies, delays in deliveries from Russia have caused India to seek out alternative sources through the use of its global partnerships and to increase the diversity of its procurement arrangements in order to enhance its strategic flexibility.
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India’s tightrope diplomacy reshapes great-power expectations
Discussions during the summit focused on India’s Foreign Policy Direction again, with experts noting that Modi takes a Strategic Autonomy Approach to Foreign Policy. Both leaders presented their partnership as “Resilient and Practical”. Thus, India has been able to Balance its Historical Relationships with Emerging Global Realities. Trump’s statements clearly reflected the Changing Expectations from the United States towards India. Ultimately, the summit demonstrated India’s increasing confidence in its geopolitical position.
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