The United States has stated it is prepared to offer strong security guarantees to Ukraine in the form of a NATO guarantee as part of a possible peace agreement to bring an end to Russia’s war in Ukraine as a result of high-level talks conducted in Berlin. Although it’s stated that Washington and its allies agree that this constitutes a big step forward, the most problematic area of this discussion remains territory.
US officials made it clear that the assurances would follow the format of NATO’s Article Five, whereby an attack on one member is considered an attack on all of them. “It’s the platinum standard,” US officials explained, “and it will help to ensure Ukraine’s long-term security against any further aggression from Russia.” However, US officials emphasized, “It’s not going to stay on the table forever.”
What the security guarantees entail
The negotiations encompassed the presence of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, US special envoy Steve Witkoff, and other high-ranking officials from Europe and NATO. The Ukrainian President said the negotiations were difficult but productive, though in order to yield on other issues, they require guarantees on security.
As reported by US and European officials, the framework contains a number of features. “These include a European-led multinational force to assist in the regeneration of the Ukrainian armed forces, as well as a US-led ceasefire monitoring and verification mechanism to give an early warning of a new attack,” the officials said. Economic recovery and reconstruction aid will also depend on the peace agreement.
In a joint statement released in Berlin, the UK and European leaders have applauded “significant progress” and have committed to working together with the US to provide strong security guarantees and economic assistance for Ukraine.
NATO membership put aside as compromise
Notably, Zelenskyy also hinted that his country could abandon its aspiration for NATO membership within a compromise package if the alternative assurances were sufficiently robust. This indicates that Kyiv struggles to find a balance between the reality of war and at-home calls not to abandon its fundamental demands.
EU leaders were cautious in their reaction. EU Foreign Policy Chief Kaja Kallas explained that what Ukraine needs is not “papers or promises,” but “real troops and real powers.” Denmark’s Foreign Minister, Lars Lokke Rasmussen, supported this position, stating, “We have to make sure we have a guarantee which is exactly as strong as Article Five, even if there is no NATO membership.”
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Donbas is still the biggest obstacle
Although there has been some progress made regarding the security guarantee, there is still a deadlock in the negotiations being held in eastern Ukraine—specifically in the Donbas region, which Russia now controls and demands complete sovereignty for the Ukrainian government to grant them.
The US has proposed a possible establishment of an “economic free zone” in the disputed regions of Donbas. What Ukraine must do is withdraw from the regions it currently controls; Russia will not be expected to withdraw from the region it currently occupies. Zelenskyy said Ukraine and US have varying points of view on sovereignty issues.
American negotiators believe that once the terms of the economic framework are agreed upon, “the sides could work out final sovereignty questions.” But that appears highly unlikely as long as Kyiv and Moscow remain as far apart as they do now, with “territory” being “the largest obstacle to a deal.”
US President Donald Trump’s remarks carried an element of positivity as he stated that “our talks with President Zelenskyy and with European leaders are very good.” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz placed the meeting into context by announcing that the ceasefire is “the first time that the possibility of a ceasefire is on the table.”
“There is an agreement on about 90 percent of the questions, but unfortunately, territory and sovereignty are the most politically explosive questions remaining,” US officials told journalists.
War pressure continues
This comes amid the fact that Ukraine is experiencing the fourth winter of war, with the latest attacks by the Russians targeting its energy infrastructure. Over a million households lost access to electricity due to the recent attacks.
For Ukraine, this meeting in Berlin has become a turning point that brings more security guarantees closer than ever before but has yet to resolve its territorial standoff in achieving peace. What remains to be seen now in this diplomatic stage of history is whether Ukraine can really attain lasting peace without compromising its sovereignty.
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