Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to brief US President Donald Trump on the possibility of further military action against Iran following the Israeli fear that the Iranian government is quickly revamping and increasing the projection capabilities of its ballistic missiles.
Israel’s officials think Iran “speeds up its missile development as its former plants were damaged in Israeli attacks this year,” according to various sources who know about the talks. The fears of Israel’s officials are more urgent with regard to Iran’s missiles than its nuclear plans, while Tehran “is also believed to be trying to revive some of its nuclear enrichment plants destroyed by US bombings in June.”
Emphasis on missiles, Not Just Nukes
Evaluations done by Israel believe that the Iranian missiles and Iranian air defence installations had degraded considerably owing to the recent hostilities, especially the destruction inflicted on its advanced S-300 air defence network. But Iranian officials are now concerned that Tehran has started making swift repairs, which could help it safeguard both its missile factories and its future nuclear installations.
As one senior official said, if Iran continues unchecked, it might one day produce thousands of missiles per month – which is simply too great a threat for the Iranians to pose towards Israel.
“The missile threat is real,” said a former Israeli official. “Even if Israel has air superiority, the more ballistic missiles, the more difficult to defend against them.”
Meeting at Mar-a-Lago and Military Plans
A meeting between Netanyahu and Trump is also expected to take place at the end of the month in Trump’s Florida residence, Mar-a-Lago. When the two meet, one of the arguments that Netanyahu could raise would be that Iran’s missile development poses not only threats to Israel’s national security but also regional as well as US national security.
Sources believe Netanyahu could return, as he has before, with several military options available, including US-Israel joint operations, to Donald Trump, similar to before the June attack. The attack, called Operation Midnight Hammer, involved US bombers B-2, which use bunker busting ammunition, which is not in the Israeli arsenal.
White House response
The White House claims that Iranian nuclear capabilities had effectively been eliminated in June. In fact, spokesperson Anna Kelly told reports that Iranian and International Atomic Energy Agency officials had verified that Iranian “nuclear facilities had been totally obliterated.”
This has been supported by President Trump, who has also warned against the reconstruction of Iran’s nuclear or missile programs. “If they do come back without a deal, we can knock out their missiles very quickly,” Trump has said.
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Diplomacy vs escalation
The Israeli calls for a new round of strikes come at a critical time. Teheran has been showing an interest in reviving a dialogue with the USA, meaning that any further military strikes might jeopardize the ongoing negotiations. It should however be noted that Tel Aviv remains concerned about the financial support that Teheran gives to regional proxies.
Issues further complicated by the failed ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas will also likely be a huge topic in the meetings between Netanyahu and Trump. US sources have indicated that the tensions regarding Gaza could affect the US willingness to have another confrontation with Iran.
What comes next
For Israel, the missile problem represents a ticking clock. “OnceIran replaces its defenses, any subsequent attack will, of course, be much more complicated, more expensive, and probably less likely,” explained an Israeli official. Whether Trump chooses the path of military pressure or diplomacy remains to be seen; however, it is expected that it would have some influence on the next course of events with regards to US-Iran-Israel relations in such a turbulent region.
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