Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced he will meet with US President Donald Trump in Florida on December 28, which represents the highest-profile endeavor to press forward a peace agreement in the Russia-Ukrainian conflict, which has been raging for nearly four years.
During a briefing on Friday, Zelenskyy stated the following regarding his planned meeting with Trump: “We will discuss security guarantees, reconstruction, and our plan about 20 points of which is now about 90% ready.” This event is expected to take place in Florida and is generally thought to be Trump’s residence at Mar-a-Lago, though nothing is official yet.
The planned negotiations come after a flurry of backroom diplomacy between US, Russian, and Ukrainian diplomats. These developments indicate that Washington has made its strongest move yet towards a settlement. However, the red lines in politics for Moscow and Kyiv make a breakthrough unlikely.
Peace roadmap starts to take shape, but decisive sticking points remain
“The coming meeting will be devoted to ‘refining’ a plan for a peaceful solution to this war to the best of our abilities prior to the start of a new year, when, according to my information, our Ukrainian and American colleagues are close to having made significant progress,” President Zelenskyy said. The current plan will be based on an earlier U.S.-drafted proposal written in November, which also involved Russian input. However, Kyiv wants some modifications to ensure more robust security guarantees.
Ukraine demands security assurances like Article 5 in NATO membership, whereby the defense of every member is obligatory when attacked. However, Russia has repeatedly opposed the offer of any guaranteed security assurances that may impede Moscow’s influence for Ukraine.
Kyiv has hinted that there is only a low degree of flexibility in its position. This was evident when Zelenskyy declared that Ukraine would be willing to withdraw its military forces operating in the remaining portion of the Ukrainian territory in the eastern part of the city of Donbas if Russia withdraws its forces to create a demilitarized zone there. Russia has never hinted that it would be willing to make the same concessions. Instead, it insisted that Ukraine yield territory in the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova announced on Thursday that “there has been slow but steady progress” being made in the negotiations, although Moscow has made no statement about being willing to cede territory that it occupies. To the contrary, Russian negotiators have demanded that Ukraine acknowledge Russian sovereignty over the entire Donbas region.
“Conflicting battlefield realities” ignite an element of urgency and tension
Diplomatic maneuvering is also playing out while new positions appear on the front. Ukrainian forces recently regained control of an area around Kupyansk in the Kharkiv region, an area that contradicted earlier rosy reports from Russian commanders of their gains. The surprise gains from the Ukrainian forces enraged war-supporting bloggers in Russia.
Meanwhile, Russia has continued its attack on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Drone attacks and missiles targeted Mykolaiv, Odessa, and Uman this week, causing damage to energy lines, seaports, and residences. In the Zaporizhzhia region, a guided aerial bomb resulted in the death of one person and injured three. Ukraine struck a strategic Russian oil refinery in Rostov through long-range Storm Shadow missiles.
These military annunciations again underscore the urgency of negotiations—and yet again make clear the distance between the parties and reaching an agreement. Russia insists that it needs overall control of the Donbas region, whereas Kyiv wants reciprocal and verified withdrawal and guarantees of safety from future assaults.
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For Trump, such Florida discussions are just the latest installment of a string of behind-closed-doors diplomatic meetings with his envoy Steve Witkoff and other Russian officials including Kirill Dmitriev. As reported on Friday, the Kremlin had indeed acknowledged that communication is already underway for a next level.
Zelenskyy believes the meeting in Florida may bring the plan a step closer to completion. However, the progress must come not only from the US and Ukraine but also from Moscow’s willingness to compromise.
“Russia is always looking for a reason not to agree to terms,” he said at a press conference, noting that “100% ready” terms are still being offered by Kyiv.
In spite of the diplomatic progress:
- Russia has not given indications of agreeing to withdraw from the occupied territories.
- It refuses to surrender its remaining territory in the Donbas
“Security guarantees” remain the most problematic question so far The conference in Florida may help determine whether such gaps can be closed—or whether realities of battle trumped negotiations again. Currently, however, President Zelenskyy says: “Both sides are not wasting a single day.” If this translates to a real peace agreement remains to be seen.
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