The BRICS bloc will have India at the helm for the year 2026 during a period when international tensions surrounding trade are intensifying and the distribution of influence within global politics is shifting. With increased emphasis on developing trade walls and a growing number of major economies reassessing existing alliances, New Delhi has taken on a critically important leadership role for BRICS-member nations trying to develop stronger relationships with each other through multilateral agreements and combat an increase in the polarization of economic relations.
India steps in as protectionism rises
India’s presidency of BRICS began today (Thursday). Because BRICS includes countries from 4 continents — Asia, Africa, Europe and Latin America — it reflects the regional diversity of its members. Recently, BRICS membership has increased significantly from the original five countries of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, to now include 5 additional countries (Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, Indonesia, UAE), and shortly after to include Saudi Arabia.
According to World Bank’s data, this enlarged BRICS group contains approximately 50% of the world’s population, about 1/3 of the world’s GDP, and about 1/4 of the world’s international trade. These statistics clearly illustrate the great importance of India’s leadership role in BRICS while at the same time highlighting the current uncertainty caused by the US Tariffs imposed on Mexican imports, as expressed by President Trump in his statements regarding tariffs imposed by the United States on other nations. India and Brazil (the last two chairs of the BRICS Group) will both face the highest tariff rates (to be imposed in 2025 and 2026) for the majority of their exports to the US (due to the high cost of Russian oil) and are likely to face additional tariffs from the US as well.
Navigating the “tariff era”
Should BRICS advance initiatives such as a BRICS-wide currency, Trump would intensify tariffs against BRICS, calling them “dead” and instituting tariffs of up to 100% on any actions taken to diminish the U.S. dollar’s standing as the dominant currency in international trade.
Unlike BRICS, it is unlikely that India would take such an approach, and industry and market analysts project that New Delhi will pursue using local currencies to settle trade, thereby circumventing direct confrontation. Analysts and industry insiders believe, however, that India will advocate for reforming global institutions like the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and World Trade Organization to provide greater representation for developing countries in these institutions.
For India to set its BRICS agenda (2026) would mirror the themes/themes of its G20 Presidency (2023):
- Concern for the Global South
- Inclusive Economic Growth and Access to Technology
- Changes to Global Trade Rules That Treat Emerging Economies Equally as Part of The Global System
There would be a focus on such issues as food security, increasing debt, fuel shortages, domestic job creation, and climate finance. Because of the United States’ Chairmanship of the G20 in 2026, India would also strive to ensure that the priorities of the Global South are not overlooked through global power rivalry.
Expansion: opportunity and caution
The application by Pakistan to join the BRICS-backed New Development Bank illustrates how the expansion of the BRICS bloc affects regional political dynamics. While India supports the idea of expanding the BRICS bloc, it states that new members should be added only if they meet specific criteria — including economic capacity, development potential, commitment to multilateralism and adherence to internationally accepted standards or regulations — rather than political influence.
In addition, in 2025, BRICS reduced its number of countries expanding membership to strengthen and consolidate its member base, and India is likely to follow suit with this trend. What the ASEAN expansion means for India
Indonesia’s new participation in BRICS has helped the group take a strategic step into Southeast Asia. For India, this change presents several opportunities:
- Strengthening India’s leadership in the region by supporting integration of ASEAN countries into the BRICS community;
- Countering China’s growing influence within this bloc;
- Expanding market access for Indian exports (including Pharma, Digital Services, and Manufacturing);
- Establishing new pathways for mobility that can help alleviate domestic unemployment by creating opportunities to employ skilled workers abroad;
- Enhancing India’s connectivity with the region through the Act East Policy, while broadening diplomatic and economic relationships.
If India can assist the inclusion of additional ASEAN nations into BRICS while maintaining a sense of unity, this group may become a competitor to the Western-led institutions and assist New Delhi in regaining its position as a leader among the Global South.
Challenges on the path ahead
India’s balancing act is a tricky one. Its ability to exercise its strategic autonomy, from buying oil from Russia to how it votes at the United Nations, has resulted in tensions between India and western partners, who assumed that India would play a more significant role in countering China. If these tensions diminish, there may be no limits on India’s involvement in certain multi-sectoral partnerships, such as the Quad or I2U2, both of which play essential roles in India’s approach to the Indo-Pacific region.
China’s significant economic presence may challenge Indian interests as a result of how heavily China dominates BRICS. Ultimately, managing this economic power will pose the most significant challenge for India in maintaining its cooperation with BRICS countries.
Why this presidency matters
While the world is increasingly divided between growing protectionism and demands for a more just and equitable global system, India is in a position to lead the BRICS bloc, which has an opportunity to help bridge this gap through enhanced cooperation. A successful outcome will depend upon New Delhi’s ability to reform institutional structures, promote development of a stronger multilateral framework and include newer members into the BRICS framework without sacrificing cohesiveness. If accomplished, BRICS will be an important vehicle for emerging economies and India will solidify its standing as an “anchor” of stability in a multi-polar global environment.
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