The recent seizure of two strategically located border regions of Yemen by the Southern Transitional Council (STC) has reignited longstanding tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), since the Saudi government has rejected the STC’s request to withdraw from these areas. As a result, this confrontation has tested one of the most important alliances in the Middle East, while threatening to upset the precarious balance of power in Yemen’s ongoing civil conflict.
STC offensive escalates pressure on Riyadh
In December, the STC, a group of separatist fighters backed by the UAE, conducted a surprise attack and took over the provinces of Hadramawt and Mahra, which are rich in resources, and are located directly adjacent to Saudi Arabia. This move caught both the Yemeni Government Forces by surprise and infuriated the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, as they perceive the possession of those provinces to be integral to their national security and the stability of their border.
On Tuesday, the Saudi-led coalition attacked what they allege a shipment of weapons supplied by the UAE that was en route to the STC in the port of Mukalla, an allegation that was categorically denied by Abu Dhabi. In response to this attack, Saudi Arabia demanded the STC withdraw its forces from the recently conquered territories and provided a 24-hour deadline for any remaining troops from the UAE to exit Yemen.
A Limited Concession on Riyadh’s Part
On Thursday, the STC released a public statement announcing that the National Shield forces, who are aligned with Saudi Arabia, can now be deployed within the regions that the STC is currently controlling, but they stated that this action should not be perceived as a withdrawal of troops. “We have initiated an operation to integrate the southern National Shield forces so that they will assume responsibility in the areas that we control,” the statement from the STC said.
Saudi authorities indicate this plan does not provide adequate security as they expect the STC to pull back from both Hadramawt and Mahra to guarantee full protection.
A source close to the Kingdom stated that until security is provided by a full withdrawal of the STC from both provinces, the expectations of the Saudi authorities will remain unfulfilled, adding that redeployment alone is not sufficient.
Saudi-controlled ground forces are monitoring the STC’s troop movements due to concerns that even partial withdrawals may allow for greater entrenchment of STC control in both regions. As uncertainty continues to build around the issue of stability for the civilian population, residents remain cautiously optimistic for the presence of Government troops.
Many feel that having Government troops in place to prevent future violence is important. Musaed Salem, a bus driver in Qatn, noted, “We do not want war; we want security and stability for Hadramawt and for all the people.”
Analysts are concerned that unless the STC completely withdraws from Hadramawt and Mahra, the tensions between these competing military groups could continue to escalate.
UAE withdrawal exposes deeper rift
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has announced its decision to withdraw its remaining military personnel from Yemen, highlighting the growing rift between the two Gulf States.
Although both countries oppose the Iranian backed Houthi rebels, they support rival factions within the Yemeni Government. Riyadh supports the Saudi Central Government while Abu Dhabi maintains its support for the Southern Transitional Council (STC) which advocates for an Independent Southern Yemen.
The advances made by separatists have raised concerns that the South may declare independence which could jeopardize any chances for ongoing efforts to establish a Peace Process between the Houthis and the Arab Coalition.
Farea al- Muslimi from Chatham House believes that the decision by the STC is tactical rather than transformational. According to him, “The STC’s decision was simply a face-saving measure that had been previously rejected by Riyadh and only after all additional forces are withdrawn from Yemen can there be any realistic hope for de-escalation.”
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From quiet rivalry to public confrontation
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) and UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed (MBZ) have clashed head-on during the crisis. The duo’s once close ties defined Gulf politics; however, their competitive ambitions concerning their differing interpretations of OPEC+’s oil policies and Sudan’s humanitarian crisis have caused them to diverge.
These two counterparts had previously worked closely together on issues such as Yemen, Qatar and regional security. But now, the leaders are more frequently pursuing individual strategies instead. It could be argued that a new level of competition has emerged, particularly with Saudi Arabia’s efforts to entice multinational corporations to relocate their headquarters out of Dubai.
Why this moment matters
As the war in Yemen reaches a stalemate, the latest confrontation is part of an ongoing trend. Saudi Arabia has signaled that it intends to exit the conflict and refocus its efforts toward transforming its economy. However, because of the recent military advances of the STC, Saudi Arabia has been pulled back into a conflict that they had intended to reduce their involvement in. In addition to regaining its foothold in Yemen, the STC offensive threatens Saudi Arabia’s influence in the region.
According to Firas Maksad of Eurasia Group, “The UAE-backed forces’ offensive crossed the red line set by Saudi Arabia.”
If nationalist sentiments become prevalent in the region, analysts believe there is a risk for further escalation of hostilities.
Maksad concluded by stating, “If the STC does not retreat, it has the potential to turn the Saudi-UAE geopolitical competition into a personal feud between the two most powerful leaders in the region.”
What’s next?
The STC’s withdrawal and Saudi Arabia’s acceptance of a mixed deployed force will determine the way forward. The Yemeni people remain focused on achieving a peace settlement, while regional tensions continue to impede Yemeni reconciliation.
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