President Donald Trump has taken a big step in U.S. foreign policy with the announcement of air strikes in Venezuela and capturing president Maduro and his wife. Although the airstrikes were initially stated to be part of an enhanced war against drugs by the White House, a broader look reveals that it is a great deal more than just this. The underlying issues driving this action involve many different aspects, including the need to maintain power and increase American dominance within the international oil market.
Since President Trump entered the office in his first term, Venezuela continues to be targeted by Washington. In 2020, Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his top advisers were indicted on drug trafficking charges by the United States Government. According to the U.S., Maduro operates a “narco-terrorist” regime. The United States and its allies also named opposition leader Juan Guaido as the Interim Leader of Venezuela based on information available. This attempt failed to remove Maduro from power. When Mr. Trump returned to power in 2025, Venezuela immediately became a focus of his administration. The administration enforced a naval blockade, targeted Oil Tankers, authorized covert operations by the CIA, and attacked vessels that the U.S. claimed involved in the trafficking of narcotics. With a clear message; Maduros removal from office no matter what.
Regime change, openly stated
Large scale air strikes were carried out against Venezuelan by U.S. forces today on Jan 3. Mr. Trump then hours later announced Mr. Maduro and his wife have been captured and taken out of the country. Following this announcement Caracas condemned this action as an example of “imperialist aggression” and declared a State Of Emergency.
The action taken is not an accident and is regime change being actively pursued.
The strategic dominance dimension is also a significant driver of U.S. goals. In the Trump administration, the Monroe Doctrine’s concept of “exclusive American Influence” in the Americas has been openly revived. The recently released U.S. national security document identified Latin America & Caribbean as a key strategic objective and included the identification of “external powers,” which equate to China and China-related interests, as a Threat to U.S. interests in this region.
By being openly defiant to the U.S. and taking an aggressive stance toward it, Venezuela is likely the most visible threat to this effort.
The China factor
Trade, lending, and infrastructure investment have allowed China to increase its presence in Latin America, and Venezuela is an example of that growing relationship. China purchases most of the crude oil that is exported by Venezuela, and Beijing’s state-owned China National Petroleum Corp. still holds the biggest foreign investment in Venezuela’s oil and gas sector. In 2024, Chinese companies entered into several billion-dollar agreements with PDVSA, Venezuela’s state-owned oil company. If the U.S. were to remove Mr. Maduro from power, it would not only decrease China’s influence in Venezuela but also communicate to other countries in the region the potential consequences of aligning too closely with either China or Russia.
Oil at the centre
Oil is a third and possibly the most important reason for the continued involvement of the U.S. in Venezuela. With approximately 17% of the global supply of crude oil, Venezuela has the largest proven reserves of crude oil in the world. U.S. oil companies enjoyed an ongoing dominance of the oil industry until it was nationalised in 1976, with former president Hugo Chávez using money from oil to fund extensive social programmes.
President Trump has continually claimed that the nationalisation of oil companies by the Venezuelan government means that Venezuela “stole” the American assets. In more recent comments, he has stated specifically that he wants to see Venezuelan oil returned to the U.S. to not only lessen the U.S. reliance on Middle Eastern oil, but also to eliminate Chinese competition from an essential energy market.
The position of the U.S. on Venezuelan oil is also supported by elements of the Venezuelan opposition. Maria Corina Machado, an outspoken opponent of the Maduro government, has publicly stated that if the current regime collapses, she will allow the complete opening of Venezuela’s oil, mining, and power industries to foreign (particularly U.S.) companies.
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What comes next
Despite Mr. Trump’s apparent close proximity to regime change in Venezuela, there are still many uncertainties surrounding the country’s future government. Many top Venezuelan officials remain in power despite being targeted for attack, the loyalty of the military to the current leaders of Venezuela is still not known, and history indicates that attempting to remove a country’s leadership through violence usually leads to a period of instability rather than quick transition to new leadership.
One thing, however, is absolutely evident: the attacks on Venezuela were not simply a routine event. Drug trafficking, and law enforcement operations, were only part of the broader framework of existing political and geopolitical rivalry between continued U.S. support for dictatorships and socalled free-market democracies in the Americas. Additionally, these attacks on Venezuela are indicative of the continued commitment of the Trump Administration to expand the military presence of the United States in Latin America during his second term.
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