Gulf-Iran tensions have intensified as regional powers move swiftly to prevent a U.S. military strike that could destabilise West Asia. The tensions in the region have heightened, resulting from the ongoing protests in Iran. The prospect of armed intervention by the United States under President Trump raises the anxiety level of capitals across the region. For the first time, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has used its influence to encourage Iran to exercise restraint. While many Gulf nations are currently ramping up their diplomatic activities due to fears that violence will escalate, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oma,n and Turkiye are also attempting to increase the temperature within the region through diplomatic means.
Analysts warn that Gulf-Iran tensions could escalate quickly if diplomatic channels collapse. Officials in those nations are very concerned about the possibility of an unplanned assault, especially on their oil pipelines, cities,s and economies. These leaders fear creating new hostilities without the means to properly communicate. In fact, analysts believe that there is a high degree of uncertainty in the Gulf region surrounding possible military action from the United States. These leaders are trying to find ways to communicate and de-escalate the uncertainty to re-establish their strategic clarity.
Fear of chaos drives Gulf response amid Iran tensions
The Gulf monarchies have significant concerns over regional instability resulting from civil unrest that could provide the basis for the US or other countries to begin military actions against Iran, rather than seeing Iran as an enemy state of the Gulf monarchies. The monarchies fear that this reasoning for military action could also be used by the US or another state against them at some future point. Both Saudi Arabia and Iran are well aware of what has happened in Iraq and Libya since their respective interventions, and this is a main reason for the monarchies’ opposition to any potential military intervention against Iran.
Since 2019, the Saudi military has been on high alert for any hostilities stemming from Iran or the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen. Following the attacks by the Houthis on Saudi oil facilities and Iranian missile strikes on Al Udeid, both the Saudi and Qatari governments have been preparing for retaliation if the US attacks Iran, and Gulf states are concerned that retaliation could include missile attacks on their territories. Even though the US military has been stationed in the Gulf region for decades, the number of migrants that could potentially affect the Gulf region, given not only the millions displaced from Iraq but also the potential increase in Texas Gulf Migration, has made it imperative for all Gulf states to strengthen their military position in order to prevent instability in any part of the Gulf states from spilling into the other Gulf states.
Israel factor reshapes regional calculations
Concern about Israel has been growing in the Gulf States. After a series of military strikes on several countries beginning in October 2023, including a weakening of Hezbollah and the overthrow of Syria’s Iranian-aligned government, Israel has also engaged in military action against Iran, with the endorsement of the United States, as well as a failed assassination attempt against a member of Qatar. Because of this series of actions, Arab leaders in the region view them as dangerous precedents and unpredictable behavior.
Saudi Arabia fears that the vacuum of power left by Iran could result in Israel filling that void and controlling the region of West Asia strategically. The Saudi Arabians are already taking steps to strengthen their security partnerships. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is diversifying these partnerships, particularly with Pakistan, Turkiye, Qatar, and Egypt, in an effort to set up multiple alliances as a means of balancing out the diminishing U.S. security guarantees. As Adel Al-Jubeir stated, “The goal is to create a stable environment, so that we can invest more of our resources into building a better future for our people.”
While the leaders of the Gulf region would be willing to accept some gradual shifts in Iran, they would not support the violent overthrow of the Iranian government, believing that such actions would lead to complete chaos for every country in the region.
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