December demonstrated strong evidence of an energy signal. Last month, India sharply reduced its Russian crude oil purchases. The decrease represented the lowest level of Russian crude imports since February 2025. Trade data have revealed some significant shifts in the dynamics of energy markets over this period. Sanctions imposed by Washington have deeply affected how we conceptualize supply when calculating energy-related decisions. Through December, there were very few activities in which volumes were declining.
In January, India imported Russian crude oil valued at $2.7 billion. Discounted prices from November to December, along with shifts in the global political landscape, likely drove this extreme drop in value. Many of the countries that had established themselves as major suppliers to India are once again displacing Russia as the primary crude exporter. This has created additional strategic uncertainty in the global marketplace.
This reduction in Russian crude supplies has put India to the test of its long-held autonomy in terms of foreign policy, but it will continue to reinforce how energy is linked to global diplomacy as countries continue to adjust relationships based on energy needs.
How sanctions reshaped India’s Russian oil intake
US sanctions against Russian companies Rosneft and Lukoil target the companies that support Russian oil exports to India; Washington announced the measures in October 2022, meaning both companies had to cease making payments on their transactions by the August 2022 deadlines outlined in the sanctions. Therefore, Indian refiners changed their methods for procurement and, as a result, December imports from Russia were down 27% month-over-month and down 15% year-over-year, resulting in Russia’s share of total import volumes at 24%, which is its lowest share of total imports in three years.
In terms of volume, its December import number was the same as it was in February 2025. In December, Russia’s percentage of imports was also 24%, but Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, as well as increased exports by the United States, have all contributed to this decrease. US crude oil exports to India increased on an annual basis; however, Indian companies have refused to comment publicly on their imports. Nonetheless, trade data indicates a clear change in direction, demonstrating that the sanctions have had a significant effect on business.
India’s Russian Oil Pivot Amid US Pressure and Supply Diversification
The US Political Messaging Corresponds with the Falling Off of India’s Imports of Russian Oil under US President Donald Trump. Linked this to the Tariff Reductions that he made in Public Statements (but New Delhi Did Not Confirm This Specific Claim). Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi Has Reminded Indian Officials Time and again that Securing Energy is Their Top Priority; however, Indian Officials have pointed to Changing Global Conditions and the Evolution of Markets as Reasons for Their Proactive Sourcing of Diverse Types of Crude Oil Instead of Sourcing Major Suppliers Based on Tariff Reduction Commitments.
US Oil Imports into India Have Increased by Almost 31% Per Year; in December 2022, India sourced crude oil from 19 Countries – Increasing by 3 from December 20222; 10 suppliers increased as a Share of India’s Supply but 9 Suppliers Decreased in Shares During This Time. This Illustrates Flexible Procurement Processes Being Used By India and Associated Risk Mitigation Provides Evidence of Increased Sanctions Pressure; While Russia Was Still an Important Supplier to India, Its Hold over The Posture of The International Energy Markets Has Clearly Weakened. In The Future, How Countries Choose to Invest in Energy Will Be Critical to Their Diplomatic Relationships Going Forward. Over time, the India-Russia oil pivot may redefine India’s energy diplomacy and trade balance.
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