Once upon a time about a decade ago the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were perceived to be the principal pillars of Gulf power, collaborating on everything from wars and diplomacy to regional economics. Today however, that partnership appears to have developed quietly into a strategic rivalry.
Two men at the center of this new relationship are Mohammed bin Salman and Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan. Throughout much of the mid-2010s, MBZ was widely seen as a mentor figure for Saudi Arabia’s younger crown prince. Cooperation peaked from 2015 through 2017 with their joint intervention in Yemen the blockade of Qatar and the establishment of themselves as leaders of a new assertive Gulf order.
The two began to drift apart after MBS consolidated his power and initiated Vision 2030 which aims at transforming the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia into a global investment hub. It was clear that Riyadh was no longer going to use Dubai as its business gateway in the region, so in 2021 it forced multinationals with regional offices to move their headquarters to Saudi Arabia or lose their government contracts which was a direct challenge to the UAE’s economic model.
Rivalry intensified among the regions of aviation and logistics, with Riyadh both backed by Saudi Arabia and new investments in ports signalling intent to compete against both Emirates and Dubai’s shipping.
In the past, the economies were complementary in the region as the two countries initially joined forces against the Iranian backed Houthis, they began to support opposing factions.
Yemen: the main battleground
Saudi Arabia supported the Presidential Leadership Council who aimed for a united Yemen to secure its southern border, while the UAE supported the Southern Transitional Council who sought independence for southern Yemen in addition to control over its strategic ports.
By the year 2025, proxy conflicts between the parties had erupted into open conflict, as evidenced by Saudi airstrikes upon suspected UAE-linked shipments, which also showed how far the partnership had deteriorated in Yemen as part of the broader struggle for power.
Competing alliances and oil politics
The division between the two countries is also shown through the foreign partnerships that exist outside of the region, with Saudi Arabia working to strengthen its defense relationships with both Pakistan and Turkey by enhancing the aerial capabilities of both countries through drone and missile enhancements. The UAE, on the other hand, is working to enhance its intelligence capabilities through partnerships with India and Israel in the field of cybersecurity, surveillance and missile defense.
OPEC’s oil policy has become even more complicated due to differences in Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s approach to oil prices. Saudi Arabia wants to limit production to maintain prices, while the UAE wants to increase production to gain market share. Both sides average out, but the number of disagreements between these two regions has increased recently.
Another issue of contention has been in Sudan, where the two countries have been accused of supporting different sides and have been critical of one another regarding relations with Israel and the United States. Reportedly, MBS also expressed concerns to President Trump about UAE actions.
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Rivalry, but no direct confrontation
Despite tensions, both Saudi Arabia and the UAE avoid openly confronting each other. Many analysts believe this rivalry is carefully managed because of the high level of instability in the region, especially with Iran and Gaza, so it is in both countries’ interests to remain united.
Saudi Arabia is focused primarily on its domestic transformation and future investments. The UAE’s main priorities centre around technology, trade, and the use of maritime power. The difference in social and political models between the two nations also affects how they project influence.
Although they still remain “iron brothers,” Saudi Arabia and the UAE have evolved into ambitious competitors for leadership in the Gulf. The war in Yemen, OPEC, trade, and security have changed the nature of their partnership into a historically managed rivalry.
It is unlikely that this ongoing silent competition will escalate into an armed conflict; however, its effects will have a significant impact on the future of Middle Eastern politics – boardroom, battlefield, and beyond – for many years to come.
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