The expiry of New START Treaty in February 2026 has ushered the world into a more dangerous phase of nuclear competitiveness. For over fifty years, United States and Russia have been limited by treaty on the size of their strategic nuclear arsenals. This new situation may seem far removed from South Asia; however, it will have significant implications for India’s security environment.
New Start Treaty was signed in 2010 and limited the number of deployed nuclear warheads to 1,550 and delivery vehicles to 700 for the US and Russia. New Start created reliable verification measures, including inspections and information sharing.
For many years, this was the stabilizing treaty between the two largest nuclear powers.
The collapse of New Start allows both US and Russia to expand without any limits.
Former US President Trump showed no interest in extending the treaty and insisted that China must be included in any future agreements. Under President Putin, Russia has already suspended all inspections under New Start as the result of Western Sanctions imposed upon Russia.
With no trust, arms control has collapsed.
A renewed global arms race
The “nuclear triad” (land, air, sea) has been modernized by Russia; meanwhile, the US has an estimated storage of roughly 400 nuclear warheads that can be deployed if needed. Additionally, both the US and Russia are investing heavily in developing hypersonic missiles, AI-based command and control systems, and missile defence systems.
Experts have warned that the danger posed by the rising numbers of nuclear warheads pales in comparison to the accompanying insecurity that will rise from these vast arsenals. Currently, each side is obligated to develop weapons systems based on perceived worst-case scenarios, resulting in increasing pressures to make quick or even premature decisions regarding nuclear weapons use during crises.
The potential risks associated with this timeline are alarming for India.
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, China has increased its stockpile of nuclear warheads to at least 600 and is on a rapid trajectory for expansion. Moreover, Pakistan is still producing fissile material to develop additional nuclear warheads.
India possesses approximately 180 nuclear warheads and has a doctrine of credible minimum deterrence, placing it in the middle of rapidly increasing nuclear stockpiles from both China and Pakistan.
If US and Russian competition is allowed to expand uncontrollably, it will send a unsettling message that nuclear-use restraint is irrelevant; thereby, creating incentives for China and Pakistan to expand their programs in direct response, attempting to further shrink India’s strategic comfort zone.
Regional and global spillover
The North Koreans are closely monitoring the situation. The lack of boundaries for major powers will diminish the moral and political justification for restraint internationally.
The expiration of New START will lead to a decline in confidence concerning nuclear risk management. There is the potential for allies to question security guarantees. Smaller nations may look to nuclear options due to increased uncertainty. Overall, this leads to an overall more crowded and unstable nuclear environment.
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Will a new treaty be possible?
Prospects are bleak.
China has refused participation in trilateral discussions, as they maintain that their nuclear arsenal is much smaller. The UK and France prefer their own independent deterrents. With US-Russia relations at new lows, there seems little likelihood of meaningful negotiation.
The potential for a revival of arms control would appear dependent upon major shifts in the political climate, especially in Ukraine.
The end of New START marks an important change in the global security environment.
For India, this means more uncertainty regarding both borders, more intense pressure on deterrence planning, and there will be diminished international safeguards to prevent escalation.
While New Delhi may not be a part of the US-Russian rivalry, they will be faced with its byproducts.
India’s strategic environment has turned more dangerous and unpredictably so, as there are fewer rules governing the conduct of nations and more nuclear weapons being added.
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