The India-Bangladesh reset has begun to take shape after a defining election in Dhaka altered political legitimacy and regional expectations. A major change in the political forces in Bangladesh took place quietly and dramatically, as voters made a decisive statement that changed the way power is perceived across borders overnight. New Delhi recognised an opportunity for both positive engagement and continuing strategic concern. The years of strained diplomatic relations appear to be reassessable. Additionally, democratic principles have changed the expectations of many in the corridors of South Block.
India is now assessing messages from the newly established power structure in Dhaka. At the same time, regional stability will once more depend on the choices of leaders in Bangladesh. As a result, policymakers are preparing to reconnect after a long period of uneasiness about the willingness of leaders to develop new relationships with India.
While the most recent history of violence is still having an impact on India’s cautious optimism regarding working with Bangladesh, the election results have created a momentum that will be difficult for New Delhi to overlook. Therefore, this moment can be considered politically significant in India. The election results ended an interim period that India had serious mistrust of.
Consequently, the relationship between India and Bangladesh is at a critical inflection point. Most importantly, strategic calculations in India are now based upon democratic legitimacy. Thus, rebuilding trust is both essential and uncertain.
BNP Victory Creates Opening for India-Bangladesh Reset
Elected governments in India will provide predictability and continuity in diplomacy. Officials characterize the interim period as evidently and significantly disruptive, with bilateral relations being increasingly damaging due to mutual name-calling and blame. India is not responsible for the deterioration of relations and has cited policy errors by non-elected officials as the cause of tensions.
In addition, officials reported that there were still many unaddressed security concerns around minority citizens. Several incidents involving violence against Hindus have created distrust and added considerable stress to Prime Minister Modi’s position domestically, and have created worrying levels of concern around the activities of Islamic extremists and pro-Pakistani figures in the country.
Thus, the BNP’s victory was a better option than any alternative for New Delhi. With prudent hope, New Delhi is monitoring the activity of Tarique Rahman. Strategic thinkers believe that economic realities will encourage better regional cooperation through a more pragmatic approach. Following the resounding victory of the BNP, Prime Minister Modi was very quick to reach out for assistance from the newly elected government.
“I was delighted to speak with Tarique Rahman,” said Modi.
“This victory shows the trust of the people of Bangladesh in your leadership.”
“I look forward to working with you to strengthen our multifaceted relations and advance our common development goals,”
Strategic Calculations And Lingering Red Lines
India’s recent experiences have muted its optimism toward such relationships. The past BNP governments have been unpredictable with security cooperation. But because of these reasons, officials want to engage rather than have prolonged periods of no diplomatic relations. High-level representatives may attend Rahman’s inauguration, signifying that officials are willing to turn the complicated page.
Minister of External Affairs Jaishankar’s recent visit to Dhaka underscores this intention. Analysts believe that elections will provide credibility, which is necessary for the completion of the negotiations.
Experts suggest that there will be issues due to pressure from home, which may test the normalisation. At the same time, Bangladesh is trying to balance its relationships with both India and China, as well as other countries in the region.
The trade relationship between New Delhi and Dhaka provides a strong economic tie that gives New Delhi long-term leverage in the relationship. Governments in India will always place a priority on a democratic process over individual personalities, and will continue to engage with their neighbours while being mindful of security and minority issues.
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