Iran’s nuclear program is certainly generating a lot of diplomatic focus, but missiles are the main area of competition on the geopolitical level. U.S. President Trump indicated at the White House after a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the U.S. will continue to seek negotiations with Iran. He emphasized that he would like to use diplomacy to resolve the situation but warned that failure of negotiations would have consequences.
Officials have highlighted Iran’s uranium enrichment program publicly as the key point of dispute. However, analysts point out that the most significant area of controversy is Iran’s growing ballistic missile capability.
Iran’s missile programme: Israel’s primary concerns
For Israel, Iran’s missile program will be of greater concern than their nuclear development, as Iranian officials have long maintained that they believe Iran is an existential threat to Israel. Although there are “red lines” surrounding nuclear development, experts claim that Israel’s most significant immediate concern is Iran’s missile arsenal.
As analysts indicate, Iran’s missile program is considered to be the most realistic form of deterrence for Iran. Furthermore, whereas many other countries in the region rely on foreign sources for their missile programs, Iran’s missile program is becoming increasingly autonomous and independent from foreign suppliers.
Israeli estimates indicate that Iran may very well increase its missile arsenal without any international supervision within a few years. This prospect is increasing concern over conducting saturation attacks on targets in order to negate the capability of existing missile defense systems.
Israel’s prime minister has urged that any future agreement between the United States and Iran should include limits on ballistic missiles and a halt to economic assistance to groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. Iran has continually denied those requests by insisting that its missile program constitutes a matter that cannot be negotiated away.
Trump’s diplomacy vs Netanyahu’s maximalist approach
While both Mr. Trump and Mr. Netanyahu share the same goal (to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons), they do not appear to have agreed on how extensive an agreement must be.
Mr. Trump has repeatedly endorsed continuing negotiations. He publicly stated that he considers continuing with negotiations to be preferable to engaging in military hostilities. However, he has also warned if negotiations fail to produce an agreement, the U.S. may resort to action.
At the same time, Mr. Netanyahu is looking for an agreement that includes restrictions on uranium enrichment levels, limits on ballistic missile development, and accountability for Iran’s involvement with other terrorist proxies throughout the region.
From the Iranian perspective, Mr. Masoud Pezeshkian, the Iranian president, stated that Iran will not agree to negotiate “excessive demands.” Officials in Iran state that negotiations must only address the nuclear program, and cannot include discussions about conventional missile capabilities.
Many analysts caution against taking the disagreements between Washington and Jerusalem to heart, as what’s going on may simply be different avenues of a coordinated strategy to apply pressure to Iran.
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Military Pressure and Sanctions Strategy
While the United States strengthens its military presence in the region to bolster deterrent capability during negotiations, the reality is that additional aircraft carrier strike groups will be available to deploy if deemed necessary by President Trump.
Although experts believe impending military strikes are unlikely, the prevailing thought is that the U.S. will use increased economic pressure.
Scott Bessent (Secretary of the Treasury) spoke recently about how much Iran’s economy has been harmed by sanctions supported by many nations around the world. Washington will most likely continue to rely upon economic pressure in addition to isolating Iran regionally as the basis of its strategy regarding Iran, should diplomatic efforts fail.
The geopolitical chessboard with respect to Iran has to do with much more than nuclear enrichment. It has to do with establishing deterrence, missile capability and balancing power in the region.
For Israel, the successful limitation of Iran’s missile program is the key to providing long-term security for the nation. For the United States, the successful establishment of an acceptable deal will provide the reassurance to America’s allies in avoiding possible escalation of conflict resulting from creating an inadequate deal. As the negotiations continue, the true question is, “Will there be diplomacy that will restrict both Iran’s nuclear ambitions and its military expansion?”
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