US tariffs on Indian farmers have created a sudden shock across India’s agricultural exports. From shrimp in Kerala to rice in Punjab, producers face steep duties that could disrupt trade and impact rural incomes. A sudden 50% tariff shockwave from America has sent ripples across India’s rural basins. For farmers in Kerala, Punjab, and Andhra Pradesh, the question is not of trade policy from a distance. It is whether their shrimp, rice, cashew, or spice will continue to find takers across borders. Or whether these local products will end their journey in a domestic mandi without selling.
Impact on Agricultural goods
Shrimp
Shrimp shipments are some of the worst affected areas. India is one of the largest suppliers of shrimp in the world. With the new U.S. tariffs, plus existing tariffs, Indians are looking at almost 60% combined duties. Exporters have expressed concern about U.S. customers leaving for rival shrimp producers in Ecuador, Vietnam, and Indonesia. These producers are not facing the same duties.
In Kerala, the state government has raised alarms. Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan warned that rice, cashews, processed fruits, seafood (in particular shrimp), and vegetables—some of Kerala’s staples in the U.S. commerce—are now at risk of losing credibility.
Other Exports and Market Concerns
Farmers have indicated that agency exporters are now reluctant. Offered prices are declining at the moment of intensified harvest season. The uncertainty has increased many farmers’ fears. Seeds, fertilizer, and work have already been committed. They may not be able to access the market now.
Whatever the issues may be, particularly for India’s agricultural sector, exports are actually up in early 2025. Between January and June, Indian agriculture exports to the US have grown by about 24.1% y-o-y. However, this growth could be misleading. It could reflect orders placed just before any repeated tariff rate changes. Or shipments rushed to be completed before new deadlines arrive. Seafood, especially shrimp, appears to be the most exposed moving forward.
New Delhi’s stand
New Delhi has been drawing clear lines. Milk, rice, wheat, and GM crops are not on the table for trade. According to officials, these sectors will not be compromised. Opening them could harm the lives of millions of small farmers who may already be susceptible to fragile margins and climate.
Some market experts believe that India could liberalize tariffs on farm imports—not because of US pressure, but for the sake of its country’s own competitiveness and to diversify trade relations. Economists like Ashok Gulati and Niti Aayog have been speculating on whether India could justify tariffs on an exception rate (above 50%) on agricultural products.
Farmers’ Concerns and Market Pressure
For many in the sector, the story is grim. “Prices are going down even before we ship produce,” says a farmer in coastal Andhra Pradesh, who is preparing to export shipments. He fears that diminished income, in this period, will make it so they cannot earn enough to avoid debt or forgo diversification.
The pressure is not just financial pressure. It is nervous pressure—the kind that follows after you have done everything right, and suddenly, the market travails overnight.
PM Modi has stated on multiple occasions that the government protects farmers’ viability.”At a recent agricultural conference, he also reiterated his commitment. According to him, safety does not come down to choosing between one sector versus another. The government continues to place strong emphasis on agriculture, dairy, and seafood sectors.”
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