Iran and the United States are entering a significant new phase of nuclear discussions. As they search for ways to repair a broken agreement and calm tensions between both sides. Deals regarding oil, gas, mining investments and aircraft purchases could potentially provide economic incentives to move these discussions along.
The talks will take place in Geneva and will come on the heels of heightened military pressures, but both sides are sending renewed diplomatic signals that they may be prepared to reach a compromise.
Any potential agreement would need to provide some tangible benefit to the U.S. as well, according to Hamid Ghanbari, Iran’s Deputy Director for Economic Diplomacy. Therefore, economic cooperation will have to play a central role in future deals.
According to Iranian officials, the discussions could cover:
- Joint investment opportunities in various oil & gas fields.
- Developing mining projects together.
- Civil aviation agreements: Food relationships may include the purchase of civilian aircraft.
- Developing broader economic partnerships.
Both the U.S. and Iran believe the failure of the 2015 nuclear deal was due in part to the lack of substantial economic incentives to maintain long-term support for the agreement within the U.S.
Sanctions relief remains Iran’s top priority
In a sign of its willingness to negotiate regarding its nuclear programme, Iran is amenable to making some compromises in return for sanctions relief.
Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi stated that Tehran is willing to have discussions on how much uranium it will enrich and how it will deal with the stockpiles of highly enriched uranium.
Iran has stated unequivocally that it shall not stop completely enriching uranium because the US government believes that enriching uranium could take Iran one step closer to developing a nuclear weapon.
Iran insists its nuclear programme exists for peaceful purposes only.
High stakes talks in Geneva
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is in Geneva to conduct indirect discussions and negotiations with US officials through an Omani mediator. While he is in Geneva, he is also scheduled to meet with officials from the International Atomic Energy Agency to discuss the future direction of the IAEA.
The current negotiations are a deviation from the previous 2015 agreement involving many countries. The current negotiations are between the US and Iran primarily.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the United States seeks a diplomatic resolution but recognizes a diplomatic agreement is difficult to achieve.
Military Pressure And Geopolitical Risks Continue to Exist.
Tensions remain high despite diplomatic attempts. The United States has increased its military presence in the Middle East and has cautioned that if negotiations fail, military action may occur.
Iran has responded by threatening to attack U.S. military bases in the region if attacked.
Simultaneously, the United States is increasing the economic pressure on Iran, including on its ability to export oil, which is Iran’s major revenue source.
ALSO READ: Iran Nuclear Talks Reach Critical Juncture With Sanctions and Security at Stake
Why these talks matter globally
The outcome of these negotiations could change global energy markets, change international diplomacy and change the security balance in the Middle East.
A successful agreement could:
– Lift sanctions against Iran
– Expand global oil supplies
– Decrease the possibility of future military conflict
– Create new economic opportunities
If the negotiations are not successful, it may escalate tensions, cause a significant amount of instability in the Middle East.
Both parties indicate that they are willing to negotiate flexibly, but both have firm “red lines,” and the Geneva negotiations are a pivotal point in the question of whether or not diplomacy can be successful; and whether or not confrontation will return.
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