Just days ago, Washington expressed great assurance that Iran had been strategically contained. After a wave of strikes from both the US and Israel left large portions of the Iranian military very damaged, early indications from officials within Tehran suggested they may re-engage in negotiations.
However, that drastically changed by Monday.
The interim Iranian government announced they would not re-open negotiations with the United States, claiming in a televised interview that US aggression had committed them to attacking during the diplomatic process; therefore no further diplomatic efforts are viewed as productive. Current Iranian missile and drone operations have expanded beyond Israel to attack sites throughout the sovereign nation of Iraq and numerous Arab countries.
The conflict, originally viewed as being within limits, is now potentially out of control.
Iran broadens the battlefield beyond Israel
Prior to the latest escalation, most analysts felt confident in their initial assessments that Iranian retaliation would primarily be directed towards Israel due to last year’s brief hostilities. In doing so, Tehran had no desire to escalate tensions with Gulf Arab states (who they had been strengthening ties with, i.e. Saudi Arabia and Qatar).
That no longer appears to be the case.
There have been missile and drone attacks in many Arab countries recently. Oil prices increased dramatically, stock prices in the Middle East dropped significantly, and fighting resumed on the Israel-Lebanon border between Israel and Hezbollah.
Analysts believe these developments indicate military limits and strategic shifts. The Iranian leadership recognizes that they do not have the military capability to fight the US or Israel directly; therefore, they will try to expand the conflict with the US and Israel as a way of increasing indirect costs by destabilizing the entire region as a way to pressure Washington.
The danger of this strategy is that it places greater domestic and economic pressure on many of Gulf states to support US and Israeli security assistance instead of trying to divide US and Israeli alliances. President Trump urged Iran’s security forces to stop supporting the existing Iranian leadership, suggesting that he wants regime change; other observers have speculated that military action might lead to a popular revolt in Iran or that the Iranian regime would eventually be replaced by a more moderate government through a coup d’etat.
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Regime change hopes fade
While Iran’s protests have been enormous, these protests have developed completely on their own; they have developed from economic complaints. No signs are on display that an uprising within the war will happen.
The Iranian leadership moved swiftly to consolidate control of the state. An interim council is said to have been formed, made up of President Masoud Pezeshkian, senior religious and judicial leaders – and the public message from Tehran was that the possibility of more negotiations was unlikely and that any capitulation would only invite more pressure.
Iranian officials state that prior diplomatic agreements were made during war and therefore renewals of diplomacy are very unlikely.
No clear downside.
The growing pessimism is due to the thought that there is no real diplomatic solution left to this conflict without having either a credible negotiation or rapid changes internally.
There are two ways to end this war: if Washington decides to reduce operations or to degrade Iran’s existing inventory of missiles or its ability to produce them. Neither one of those outcomes appears to be likely.
In the interim, however, tensions within the region are mounting, energy markets are very unstable and diplomatic efforts appear to be ineffective.
What began as an act of military superiority by the U.S. may develop into a much larger conflict with unpredictable consequences – and one that will most likely be much more difficult to prevent than was anticipated just a couple of days ago.
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