US Kurdish strategy is emerging as Washington explores ways to create internal pressure on Iran without deploying American ground forces. America is now looking into finding ways to help create internal pressure on Iran. Reports indicate that some form of covert negotiations with Kurdish opposition forces is taking place. Officials are trying to create unrest against Tehran’s ruling regime. At the same time, Washington is looking at other options besides aerial military operations. Historically, bombing does not lead to regime change alone, so policymakers are starting to consider putting ground pressure on Iran without deploying U.S. forces.
Sources indicate that intelligence officials have spoken to Kurdish Armed organizations that are located along the Iraq–Iran border. Most of these Kurdish fighters are located in Kurdistan, Iraq. Several Kurdish factions have publicly stated their intention to begin operations against Iranian forces; also, they have urged Iranian soldiers to desert from the regime. In addition, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has carried out drone strikes, which Iran alleges were aimed at positions being held by Kurdish militants.
U.S. officials have also met with Kurdish political leaders to discuss possible military coordination. One Kurdish official stated that there is every reason to believe significant news is going to be made soon. “We feel that we are going to be able to do something very soon,” the official said. Yet Iraqi officials are concerned about the potential for escalating tensions at the border.
Kurdish cooperation could stretch Iranian security forces under the US Kurdish strategy
Advocates maintain that Kurdish fighters could create a Western front and thereby be able to divert some Iranian security forces’ assets. The added pressure would lower the level of repression in the major cities, and many analysts predict that protest activities will grow exponentially across the entire country. According to Alex Plitsas, the United States is attempting to get things moving again. However, there are significant concerns about the level of risk that is associated with the plan, according to Jen Gavito, who warned about the potential regional instability and commented, We are already facing a volatile security situation.” Additionally, Iraqi authorities do not approve of any militant actions occurring from Iraqi territory, and several Iraqi officials expressed that reinforcement troops were recently sent to the Iranian border.
At the same time, reports indicate that Israeli forces recently conducted airstrikes against Iranian holding positions on the Iranian border. According to sources, these attacks may have been intended to assist the Kurdish movement through Northern Iraq. However, the intelligence reports provided do contain warnings of the limitations of the Kurdish movement, and it has been determined by analysts that the Kurdish groups likely do not have adequate resources to carry out an insurgency.
Kurdish history with Washington fuels caution
Kurdish calculations are very much informed by their history. It is estimated that there are 30-40 million Kurds globally, living across four major countries, Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Syria. Despite this large population size, they do not have an independent state.
The US previously supported Kurdish uprisings against regional governments, but has changed that policy often within a short period of time. For example, the US withdrew its support of the Kurds after the Algiers Agreement in 1975, and then the Kurds were violently attacked by the Iraqi military. The future of the US Kurdish strategy will depend on whether Kurdish groups are willing to act despite past experiences of shifting American support.
Kurdish uprisings occurring after the Gulf War in 1991 received no American support as promised by the US. The leaders of the Kurdish people now call for stronger guarantees as they believe that they will be abandoned once new strategic goals are established.
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