There is a major transformation happening in India’s defence strategy. Specifically, nuclear-powered submarines are developing into a major component of India’s deterrence framework. The commissioning of INS Aridhaman has improved India’s at-sea nuclear capability and allows India the option to respond to a potential first strike even after such an event occurs. With the security environment being dominated by surveillance, precision weapons, and rapid escalation, the ability to continue to exist is becoming the key to credible deterrence.
India’s nuclear doctrine is based on establishing a No First Use policy; therefore it relies on maintaining the ability to deliver a second strike. Even if another nation launches a first-strike attack on India, India will have to have the ability to respond in a decisive manner. In the past, land-based missiles and air-delivered systems have been used to deliver that capability, however due to advances in satellite tracking technology, precision targeting capability, and rapid-response technologies, both systems are becoming increasingly susceptible to detection and destruction. This is where the use of nuclear submarines provides a tremendous advantage.
Why survivability now defines deterrence
Modern warfare has made visibility a weakness. Fixed missile silos can be easily identified from an orbital satellite, and airbases are clear targets for pre-emptive strikes. Aerial-based missile systems can also be tracked by increasingly sophisticated surveillance technologies, which decreases their usefulness in a high-intensity scenario. The survivability of a deterrent’s potential is, therefore, less dependent upon the number of weapons compared with their ability to survive.
Nuclear-powered submarines offer a solution to this problem by being able to operate under a naturally obscure environment. The underwater environment’s complexity and depth create a significant degree of difficulty in detecting these vessels, meaning they can remain undetected for long periods. Unlike conventional submarines, nuclear-powered vessels can remain submerged for months without surfacing to ensure they are always ready for an operational mission. This ability has been described as “deterrence from the depths,” meaning that retaliation is possible regardless of the circumstances.
INS Aridhaman and expanding strike capability
The first Arihant-class submarine is the foundation of India’s sea-based deterrent, with each subsequent submarine representing an improvement in the previous model. The INS Aridhaman is a marked improvement over previous submarines, having a larger hull than previous submarines, better stealth features, and a greater number of missiles than previous submarines. These advancements in the submarine’s design will result in extended patrols and additional option of operational flexibility, all of which will enhance India’s deterrent capabilities.
An essential component of India’s submarine-based weapons capability is the continuing evolution of submarine-launched ballistic missile systems. The K-series missile system has evolved from shorter-range missiles such as the K-15 to more capable systems like the K-4, which significantly increases the range of missile launches against potential adversaries. This capability enables submarines to operate in more protected waters while executing strikes against adversaries much farther away, thereby decreasing the possibility of detection during the launch.
Indian developments in future missile technology will further increase range and payload, thereby ensuring that India maintains its capability to provide an effective deterrent in the face of emerging threats.
Moving toward continuous at-sea deterrence
The acquisition of an additional nuclear-powered submarine, the INS Aridhaman, has significant implications for India’s ultimate goal of having continuous at-sea deterrence. Continuous at-sea deterrence is achieved through an ongoing cycle of at least one nuclear-armed submarine on patrol each of the time, removing any window of opportunity for potential adversaries to launch an attack. In this model, one submarine is on patrol, one is in preemptive standby, and one is undergoing maintenance.
As India grows its fleet of submarines, including new submarines that are currently being designed and built, it will be able to provide continuous at-sea deterrence with increasing effectiveness in a region with instability, where providing assured retaliation is a significant deterrent. Additional nuclear-powered attack submarines will help enhance this capability.
Strategic implications in a changing region
India’s increased reliance on submarine capabilities reflects developing geopolitical trends, particularly around the growing focus on the Indo-Pacific region and foreign naval operations, principally by China, and competition among global powers in the Indian Ocean. Nuclear submarines will provide India with enhanced covert capabilities to operate throughout the vast ocean, thus increasing its deterrent capabilities and extending its strategy of operating far from its coastal boundaries.
Investments in domestic defence production and naval infrastructure are also strengthening these capabilities. By developing advanced submarines locally, India will reduce its dependence on foreign sources and enhance its ability to function independently as a strategic actor. This is part of a strategic rethinking of defence where maritime security has gained a level of importance equal to that of land-based security.
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What this means for India’s defence posture
The new emphasis on the sub-sea leg of the nuclear deterrent highlights the increased importance of survivability and relative stability. The air and land-based legs of India’s nuclear capability will remain essential to its overall nuclear strategy; however, the underwater leg of the nuclear triad provides India with the highest level of assurance that it will retaliate, making nuclear submarines not only an additional element of India’s defence framework, but the most solid pillar of that framework.
The factors that will increase the importance of stealth, effectiveness, and operational flexibility with advancing technologies and increased regional competition will continue to develop. Nuclear submarines no longer fall into the category of “optional” equipment, they are critical to national security and will ensure that India’s ability to maintain deterrent capabilities is credible and viable well into the future.
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