Canada and India are in negotiations to resume diplomatic ties due to increasing tensions. Prime Minister Mark Carney has completed an official visit to New Delhi that follows several years of diplomatic estrangement. This stems from Canada’s accusation that India is involved in the murder (the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar), a charge that India has vehemently denied. The situation led to reciprocal diplomatic expulsions, but has changed as a result of shifting political realities on the world stage.
Specifically, the United States has now adopted unstable and unpredictable trade policies, and conflict in West Asia has escalated. Both countries had previously sought partners outside of the United States. Analysts have called this a cautious thaw. Reema Bhattacharya adds that there are still significant issues of trust and access to Nijjar’s murder that are politically delicate in nature. Therefore, both leaders are choosing to be more engaged and less confrontational with one another.
How trade and energy cooperation anchor the Canada-India reset
Carney and Modi made a commitment to increase trade relations between their two countries. Both leaders indicated they would work towards a major increase in trade by the year 2030. They also announced plans to expedite negotiations on a comprehensive economic agreement. Carney stated that the two nations are aiming higher than ever before. He said, “This is not just a renewal of an existing relationship; this is about growing an important friendship with new ambition, a fresh focus and foresight—a relationship between two confident nations creating our own futures.” The parties signed a uranium sales agreement under which Canada will provide close to 10 million kilograms of uranium from 2027 through to 2035.
In addition, both sides expressed interest in working together on initiatives related to critical minerals. Both leaders said they would launch separate discussions on joint defence collaborations in the near future and also expressed a desire to develop stronger strategic trust between the two countries.
Why political trust remains the decisive factor
Political sensitivities remain an ongoing problem, as demonstrated by the Nijjar issues affecting Canadian domestic debate to date. Analysts are urging prudence in diplomatic relations in the future, while Professor Harsh V. Pant expressed his support for pragmatic engagement on behalf of the two countries. “The fact that they can work together this way going forward demonstrates both countries’ commitment to create a strong bond between the two countries, and to create insulation for this relationship,” he said.
The data on public opinion show that in Canada, there is strong support for greater engagement with India. Many Canadians believe that with the right approach, it is possible to form a meaningful connection with another country. At the same time, analysts understand that building a trusting relationship can only happen through careful construction and development, rather than through solely commercial logic. Specifically, the United States has now adopted unstable and unpredictable trade policies, and conflict in West Asia has escalated. Both countries had previously sought partners outside of the United States. Analysts have called this a cautious thaw. Reema Bhattacharya adds that there are still significant issues of trust and access to Nijjar’s murder that are politically delicate in nature. Therefore, both leaders are choosing to be more engaged and less confrontational with one another. The durability of the Canada-India reset will depend on whether political trust can match expanding economic cooperation.
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