The recent military exercises conducted by China near Taiwan, called ‘Justice Mission 2025‘, are the indication that Beijing intends to use these drills as a way of rehearsing the methods necessary to separate Taiwan from the outside world, as well as to intimidate it. This two-day operation consisted of significant air and sea operations along with simulated port blockades and massive exclusion zones around them, making this the most extensive military exercise held by China since 2022.
According to Taipei, the drills caused major disruptions for both the international air and sea transportation systems and other supply lines. The events depicted a close parallel to what an actual blockade could entail, according to analysts.
What made Justice Mission 2025 different?
According to experts, this year’s military exercises took place over a much larger area than what has been seen previously, and also brought Chinese forces closer to Taiwan’s coastline. On Tuesday, live-fire exercises conducted across five different zones. Seven additional zones established to restrict access to key maritime routes.
Over a twenty-four hour period, more than one hundred thirty Chinese aircraft and twenty-two Chinese naval vessels were positioned around the island of Taiwan. Ninety sorties from Chinese military aircraft entered into Taiwan’s Air Defence Identification Zone which represents the largest breach since 2022; additionally, rockets launched by China landed in waters significantly closer to Taiwan than previous rounds of military exercises that occurred after the visit of U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in August 2022.
Researchers in the Taipei stated that these military zones impinge on the territorial waters of Taiwan’s southern and southeastern regions, thereby escalating tensions beyond what was seen after Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. The configurations of these military zones create significant restrictions on shipping lanes and air routes, resulting in the cancellation of dozens of domestic flights in Taiwan and the rerouting of hundreds of international flights.
A shift toward blockade simulation — not just intimidation
Justice Mission 2025 was not specific exercises based on intimidation or symbolic warnings; rather it offers a rehearsal of how to establish a blockade in a region with considerable importance to Taiwan’s economy, specifically at Kaohsiung and Keelung, where the majority of imports enter the island.
Taiwan heavily relies on import of natural gas. If any blockades were to take place, even on a temporary basis, it would put electricity in jeopardy, disrupt the production of semiconductors, and have an adverse effect on global supply chains.
Furthermore, exercises during this full-scale drill also exercised the potential ways in which the Chinese can sever transportation routes between Taiwan and its immediate islands of Kinmen and Matsu. As a result, it may signal how the People’s Republic of China could successfully cut off external support, while simultaneously isolating outposts that are in close proximity to the mainland.
The exercise is in line with the People’s Republic of China’s Anti-Access/Area-Denial (A2/AD) strategy. The strategy aims to prevent US and Japan from intervening if armed conflict arises. The zones utilized during the latest exercise were comparable to the blocking patterns necessary to impede the movement of allied reinforcements that would have most likely approached from the East China Sea and the Bashi Channel.
Why now? US arms deal and rising regional friction
Justice Mission 2025 practiced blocking Taiwan’s commercial ports — specifically Kaohsiung and Keelung, where the majority of goods imported to Taiwan come. Almost entirely reliant on imported energy and natural gas; therefore, Taiwan obtains 100% of its natural gas and coal via ship transport. Additionally, Experts say that if there were a blockade, even if it was temporary, it would seriously compromise Taiwan’s electric utility to sustain many semiconductor manufacturers involved in building semiconductor products to supply a global demand for them.
This time the exercise included drills evaluating transportation links between Taiwan and the Kinmen and Matsu Islands, which may indicate a method for China to isolate its outposts closest to the Chinese mainland and deny them any link with external sources of support.
According to specialists on the subject matter, the operations performed during Justice Mission 2025 support China’s Military Strategy to restrict access to and deny Territorial Space to the US and Japan in the Event of any Conflict. Out of all the locations used in Justice Mission 2025, many complied broadly with the required Zones Used to Operate a Blockade of Our Supporting Reinforcements through the Bashi Channel and East China Sea.
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Taiwan’s response: Readiness, restraint and warnings of “cognitive warfare”
Taiwan dispatched naval ships and deployed fighter jets to respond to incursions into its airspace and was monitoring incursions into its airspace. The defence minister of Taiwan, Wellington Koo, condemned China’s actions as an act of military intimidation and stated that the purpose of the drills was to exert pressure on Taiwan by draining its economic resources and diminishing public confidence in the government of Taiwan.
The cancellation or delay of over 600 flights demonstrated how fast the drills disrupted the day-to-day lives of the travelling public. The government of Taiwan issued a warning regarding the destabilising impact the military exercises could have on the region and characterised the conduct of the exercises as a test of the nation’s ability to respond to future crises.
China’s latest drills went beyond messaging. The size, proximity and tactical design point toward rehearsals for a real blockade — one that could sever ports, disrupt global trade and hinder foreign intervention. For Taiwan and its partners, the question is no longer if China can simulate isolation, but how close it is to turning drills into action.
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