The accusations made by Washington towards Beijing are startlingly quiet, yet they have explosive ramifications. Washington has accused Beijing of ongoing secret nuclear testing. The timing of the accusations directly correlates with a deadly conflict that occurred on their mutual border. In June 2020, violence broke out in the Region of Eastern Ladakh between Indian and Chinese troops. The conflict led to the deaths of twenty Indian soldiers during the Galwan Valley incident. Shortly thereafter, the U.S. made claims regarding China’s nuclear testing activities. These new allegations redefine the already tense geopolitical situation and combine the two aspects of conventional conflict and nuclear deterrence.
In addition, the recent developments in the global arms control debate have become increasingly intense. With the new addition of nuclear suspicion to the existing strategic “mistrust,” regional stability has already suffered greatly. Finally, this episode illustrates the way in which conventional conflicts have escalated regional anxiety and gives credibility to the global verification regime’s vulnerability in relation to this entire episode of events. To fully assess the truthfulness of the United States’ claims and put them in context, it is also necessary to conduct an in-depth analysis of the U.S. claims.
What the US Alleges About China’s Secret Nuclear Testing
The claim made by Thomas G DiNanno is outlined in detail in public comments.
“I can inform you that the U.S. government knows that China has carried out nuclear explosive testing, including activities that are intended to yield nuclear materials in the range of several hundred tons,” he stated before the Disarmament Conference in Geneva.
According to DiNanno, China performed a yield-producing nuclear test. This particular test allegedly occurred on June 22, 2020. The occurrence of this test was only seven days following events concerning the Galwan Valley. DiNanno’s claim includes allegations that China has been using the technique known as ‘decoupling’, a means by which countries can mask seismic signals to hinder their detection from the outside world, to conceal these nuclear testing activities. He indicates that the actions being taken by China are detrimental to enforcing the international treaty against nuclear testing.
In response to this specific allegation, China has neither confirmed nor denied the claim. Instead, China’s officials have vehemently denied other claims made by the U.S. “China opposes any of these fabricated narratives,” China’s Foreign Ministry said in a recent statement. Additionally, the Chinese government stated that the U.S. was the actor involved in the ongoing fear of an arms race.
Why the claim matters for arms control
After the New START treaty expired, an allegation arose regarding its limits on US and Russian nuclear forces. The expiration of the New START treaty, which has been in effect since 2010, lifted the binding limits on US and Russian nuclear forces that had been in place for decades. DiNanno stated that bilateral treaties can no longer be effective. Currently, we have multiple threats from nuclear states. A bilateral treaty with only one nuclear power is therefore neither realistic nor appropriate beyond 2026,” he stated.
In Washington, the focus is shifting toward trilateral nuclear negotiations; however, China has thus far declined to participate. The United States estimates that China’s nuclear arsenal will exceed 1,000 weapons. However, China has a strong disagreement with these estimates. Additionally, analysts suggest that the possibility of miscalculations similar to those during the Cold War exists. India is observing the situation closely, as there are still unresolved border issues with China. The memory of Galwan and the uncertainty surrounding nuclear weapons come together at this time. For India, China’s secret nuclear testing claims add a new layer of strategic uncertainty after Galwan.
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