The abduction of Nicolás Maduro has brought Venezuela into a new political atmosphere, which is laden with many uncertainties. Headlining the new Venezuelan politics is Delcy Rodríguez, who has been appointed as the acting Venezuelan president, thanks to the endorsement by some loyal Venezuelan institutions, including the Constitutional Chamber of the Venezuelan Supreme Justice Court. Maduro is therefore no longer the ruler of Venezuela, as all powers in Venezuela are in Rodríguez’s hands.
Her first steps were fast. Rodríguez chaired a meeting with a council of ministers and appealed to the U.S. to join Venezuela in a “cooperation agenda with a shared development goal.” It is certainly a clear indication that Caracas is finally opening its doors after all those years of standoffs.
Washington’s calculated acceptance
The response of the Washington government has been delicate yet significant. There has been a message from President Donald Trump that the domestic legitimacy of Rodríguez has been understated, yet her government has been working with the U.S. government. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has reinforced the statement that the government of the U.S. has been applying pressure, not occupying the country militarily.
This has generated popular debate on what truly occurred following Maduro’s deposition. Before the operation, three different possibilities were under intense discussion: incidents of violence, a total breakdown of the government with free elections, or an evolution within government ranks of Chavismo. There is no doubt that the third of these is what occurred.
State institutions are still intact. The military, judiciary, police, and institutions of the ruling party are still in place. Contrary to relying on guerrilla war tactics, the regime has apparently swapped its leadership for the price of retaining power.
Why Delcy Rodríguez
At first glance, Rodríguez seems like an unlikely nominee for change. She was Maduro’s vice president and minister of petroleum. Nonetheless, there are three reasons why Washington might have considered her an acceptable nominee.
Firstly, the logic of succession. The vice-president was Rodríguez. It was her constitutional right to succeed after a vacancy. Rodríguez was a plausible alternative to avoid a power struggle, which may result in a civil war.
Secondly, Legal optics. Contrary to Maduro and other top government officials, Rodríguez has not been indicted by the U.S. for drug trafficking and narco-terrorism. This, in turn, facilitated a smoother negotiation process for the U.S. government.
Third, and most important, oil. Rodríguez is in charge of Venezuela’s oil industry, which is the country’s hard currency earner.
Oil, Sanctions, Leverage
Venezuela’s petroleum sector is in a state of turmoil. Exports being severely curbed because of United States sanctions, storage capacity reaching its limit, and potential damage to oil fields because of extended shutdowns, are causing a halt in the resumption of petroleum production. In fact, it might take years, not to mention billions of dollars in investments.
This will put pressure on Venezuela. Removing sanctions will not happen immediately. Rather, these will likely ease step by step as Venezuela meets demands regarding decreased Chinese power in Venezuelan oil exports, cooperation on matters of drug trafficking, acceptance of deportated migrants, and an unconditional distancing from Cuba.
It is not about the U.S. “stealing” Venezuela’s petroleum resources: Venezuela only has one-million barrels a day of “nameplate capacity”—well below 1% of the world’s total production—and its facilities are falling apart. The broader strategic intent is to reduce the presence of any Chinese influence within the Western Hemisphere and to re-mandate U.S. influence according to a “Monroe Doctrine” strategy.
ALSO READ: The Greenland crisis could break NATO as Trump weighs takeover options
Two ways forward
At this point, Venezuela has two options.
The first is managed continuity. Chavismo maintains power through President Rodríguez, but with limited reforms. The sanctions are brought to an end, and the country sees the return of investment and the normalization of relations with the rest of the world,” describes the situation.
A second option would represent a controlled transition: “with continued U.S. pressure, Rodríguez could supervise the beginnings of a series of reforms that would open the way for free elections.” While clearly a viable option is available in the precedent of Spain’s post-Franco “transition,” this would be a process measured in years.
Currently, only an opportunistic middle-ground agreement is likely to occur. There is no need for Chavismo to give up its control in a hurry, and stability is more to be prized than perfection in Washington.
There is, however, this much that is clear: Delcy Rodríguez will not be a mere footnote in a brief span of time. She is instead the pivot around which the very future of Venezuelan politics, economy, and relations with the United States revolve. Whether Delcy Rodríguez is the architect of change or merely the administrator of the status quo will thereby also determine.
FOR MORE: https://civiclens.in/category/international-news/
About the Author
