NITI Aayog, India’s leading policy think tank, has proposed an incremental approach towards eliminating diesel-powered vehicles, which is a key part of its plan to reduce emissions and drive towards cleaner transport technologies over the coming years.
In its latest report advocating for pathways to net zero emissions by 2070, the Aayog, stated that India would need to make a phased transition away from highly polluting fuels and promote alternative options, such as CNG, hybrids, and electric mobility.
Phased approach to transition
According to the roadmap, the transition of India’s transport sector will follow three main stages.
Stage one involves progressively decreasing diesel vehicle use and tightening fuel-efficiency requirements, along with the introduction of cleaner fuel vehicle options such as CNG, hybrids and electric vehicles through policy/ infrastructure support.
In stage two, the scale-up of biofuels will begin. This will include support for flex-fuel vehicles; increased blending of Bio-CNG in conventional gaseous fuelling stations; and the adoption of new hybrid-flex-fuel vehicles, all while continuing to support EV uptake.
In the final phase of the transition, mobility systems will operate entirely on zero-emission transportation, characterised by electric and other clean energy vehicles.
Reducing Reliance on Fossil Fuels
According to NITI Aayog, India’s road transport sector is still primarily reliant on fossil fuels since petrol and diesel comprise 80% of India’s total energy consumption. As a result, transport is one of the greatest contributors to carbon emissions in India.
The report also states that while new technologies will be critical for achieving India’s climate goals, enforcement of Corporate Average Fuel Economy(CAFE) standards will equally be vital for India to meet its climate change targets.
The report concluded that improved enforcement of CAFE standards would lead vehicle manufacturers to produce more efficient and lower-emitting vehicles, making India’s transport system less reliant on fossil fuels.
Linked To Long-Term Economic Goals
Phasing out diesel is part of a larger strategy outlined in NITI Aayog’s study, Scenarios Towards Viksit Bharat and Net Zero, which argues that India can become a $30 trillion economy by 2047 while achieving net zero emissions by 2070 if it restructured its energy and transport systems now.
Under its “Net Zero Scenario, ”economic growth will be driven by higher electrification, increased renewable energy production, and improved resource efficiency. Electrification of transport will play a key role in decoupling carbon emissions from economic growth.
By the mid-century, renewable and nuclear energy could dominate electricity generation while fossil fuel use is greatly reduced.
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The upcoming transition presents enormous challenge
This will require huge amounts of money. NITI Aayog estimates that $22.7 trillion will need to be invested until 2070 (with almost $11 trillion just for electricity).
There are risks associated with land, water and minerals. The increased demand for lithium, cobalt, copper and rare earths as a result of the expansion of clean energy and EV manufacturing means India will remain dependent on imports.
Finally, there is an impact to the social fabric of India. Millions of workers depend on fossil fuel jobs which means workers will need to retrain, receive social support, and avoid disruption to the economy of a region.
The report encourages a “mission-mode” approach to managing this transition under national climate institutions and implementing stronger green finance mechanisms, developing deeper bond markets and providing greater access to the international climate fund.
NITI Aayog emphasized that India’s net-zero journey is not a hindrance to development, but an opportunity for India to build an economy that is more resilient and cleaner than ever before.
It also warned that delay will lead to significant increases in costs and that the decisions made in this decade regarding diesel phase-out and clean mobility will dictate whether India’s growth is sustainable or locked into unnecessary risks.
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