European nuclear deterrence has returned to the centre of strategic debate as confidence in long-standing US security guarantees weakens. Amid increasing geopolitical uncertainty, the security scene in Europe has changed. French President Emmanuel Macron has indicated the possibility of change, particularly endangered by a United States that he has consistently warned is pulling back. Russia’s aggression has also exacerbated concerns throughout Europe regarding its own security. As a result, leaders across Europe are now evaluating long-held assumptions that were historically founded on reliance on the US nuclear deterrent. Confidence in this nuclear guarantee has become noticeably weaker.
Macron has positioned France within this strategic void and has conveyed the notion of deterrence as now being a continental issue. He has, however, not announced immediate policy changes – only that he would like to begin having a structured debate on strategic issues, which will be indicative of evolving perceptions of threat in Europe, specifically relative to diminishing confidence in the United States. In addition, this will lead to the re-emergence of nuclear deterrence on the political scene.
How Macron frames France’s nuclear role in European nuclear deterrence
Macron has reiterated the importance of French nuclear independence. “Our nuclear deterrent protects us — it is comprehensive, sovereign and French through and through,” he said. He stressed its historic role since 1964. “Since 1964, it has played an explicit role in preserving peace and security in Europe.” He referred to the fact that this type of protection has been in place since 1964 and has served as an influential basis for maintaining peace and stability over the years throughout Europe.
He expanded the scope of this discussion by stating, “I want to begin discussions with our friends and partners in Europe on the roles that nuclear deterrence and other forms of protection can provide our allies going forward.” France is the only nuclear-armed nation in the EU, while the UK has left the EU and retains nuclear weapons. Macron shared similar views regarding this strategic approach in 2020 when the EU was dealing with country by country interest, therefore limiting cooperation opportunities with allies. Today, European and US relations are in flux; therefore, Macron believes there is once again an urgent need to address these challenges as a united bloc.
Why Europe’s response remains cautious and divided
European responses have been solidly supportive, but also cautious. Germany’s future Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has welcomed this dialogue and called for discussions involving France and the UK. About this “historic call”, Macron was very clear in his response. However, operational issues in regard to nuclear weapons are still not clarified under the current plan. Bernard Rogel reiterated that there would still be a single French launch authority. “I can’t see us having 27 buttons. From a credibility standpoint, that just doesn’t work,” said Rogel.
The consensus amongst UK political leaders was that cooperation would happen without giving up control. There has been significant internal disagreement regarding sovereignty within France. For example, Marine Le Pen contended that Macron was undermining France’s ability to deter others from using nuclear weapons against it. Belgian Prime Minister Laurent Wauquiez added that the authority to use a nuclear weapon is indivisible. Macron replied emphatically to both of those comments, stating, “Our nuclear deterrent will continue to be French and will remain as such.” Europe is currently in a state of fundamental dispute over how the nuclear deterrent will be financed, and this presents challenges concerning unity, credibility, and political will.
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