Two years since Hamas’s surprise October 7 attack on Israel plunged the Middle East into its deadliest war in decades, a glimmer of hope of peace has been seen. Israeli and Hamas negotiators are conducting indirect negotiations in Egypt’s Red Sea resort of Sharm el-Sheikh, building guarded hopes that the war that is ravaging Gaza could finally be over.
The timing is dramatic — the talks coincide with exactly two years since the day attack on Israel. On 7 October 2023, Hamas militants invaded southern Israel and killed an estimated 1,200, most of them were civilians, and took 251 hostage. Today, Israel believes that only around 20 hostages are still alive, and 28 others’ bodies are still being detained in Gaza.
In retaliation, Israel conducted a massive military operation that has brought much of Gaza down to its knees. More than 67,000 Palestinians have died so far most of them being women and children. According to Gaza’s health ministry, Famine, disease, and displacement swept over the enclave. Independent estimates, such as one by The Lancet, put the death toll even higher.
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https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/sep/29/trump-peace-plan-gaza-israel-hamas
A War That Exhausted Both Sides
For Israel, the war has turned into a national trauma. The early cohesion following the Hamas attacks dissipated into fury and disenchantment. There are ongoing weekly protests against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is accused by his critics of not preventing the attacks from happening and of bungling efforts to achieve a ceasefire that would release the remaining hostages.
Surveys indicate the majority of Israelis today back a negotiated agreement to bring an end to the war, even at the cost of hard concessions. Most of the hundreds of thousands of soldiers called up to the conflict are keen to get back to everyday life after two years on a state of perpetual alert.
Humanitarian situation in Gaza is dire condition. Israel’s military operation have forced nearly 90% of the Gaza’s population to displace sometimes repeatedly. Humanitarian organizations warn that much of Gaza is on the verge of man-made famine, as a result of Israel’s blockade of humanitarian supplies.
The Stakes in Sharm el-Sheikh
The Egypt negotiations are based on Donald Trump’s 20-point Gaza peace plan, through which American officials seek to free the hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, and ultimately create a system of governance of Gaza after the war. Egyptian and Qatari mediators are shuttling between delegations, with active U.S. involvement.
Trump has unleashed unprecedented pressure on both parties — threatening Hamas with “total destruction” if it does not comply, while compelling Netanyahu to apologize to Qatar for the airstrike in Doha.
The ultimate aim of the U.S. president, according to analysts, is to reignite his long-held “grand bargain” — a regional realignment that would make Israel-Saudi ties. But Riyadh insists: no normalization on its part without a “clear and irreversible path to Palestinian statehood.
Although Netanyahu strictly rejects the existence of a Palestinian state, Trump’s plan allegedly contains a tacit suggestion of potential independence, wording the Israeli leader selectively avoided in his formal statement.
The Politics of Survival
For Hamas, these negotiations are a matter of survival. Hamas is now limited to an urban guerrilla struggle, it has lost most of its fighting capacity and influence in Gaza.
Hamas has reportedly agreed to hand over administrative control to a Palestinian technocratic government but intends to retain enough firepower to defend itself and maintain influence over other groups.
Netanyahu, however, has political and personal wars to fight. Netanyahu hopes to cling to power, delay his corruption trial. For that, he requires a mechanism to proclaim “total victory” — Hamas annihilation, release of all hostages, and a demilitarized Gaza.
A Narrow Path to Peace
Whether peace becomes a reality is up to political will and persistent diplomacy. The Trump plan is a starting point, but does not include specific mechanisms for withdrawal, security, and reconstruction. The United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio said it will only take “days” to know whether Hamas is serious — but months, if not years, to get the details right on a lasting settlement.
For the time being, Israelis bury their dead, and Gazans plant their future in the rubble of their houses. Two years since the day that rekindled one of the world’s longest and most destructive wars, the question still lingers — will Israel and Hamas take this opportunity to end the war once and for all, or will history again replay itself in blood and sorrow?
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