The rising confrontation between the United States, Israel and Iran has not resulted in direct involvement by one of Iran’s most disruptive allies in the region, Yemen’s Houthi. Two weeks after major air attacks began from Iran, the Houthis issued threats against the United States; however, no attacks from the Houthis.
Analysts believe the lack of Houthi attacks at this point is a strategic calculation by Iran and its regional allies; not a lack of ability.
The Houthis are generally seen as one of the most effective partners in Iran’s regional alliance network — termed the “Axis of Resistance.” Over the past decade, the Houthis have developed a sizeable stock of missiles, drones, and anti-ship capabilities, with assistance from Iran’s elite military organization, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and its external operational branch, the Quds Force.
However, it appears that Iran is hesitant to use the Houthis immediately. Military planners believe that the Houthis could be a “strategic reserve” that can be put into action later if the conflict escalates.
Iran may determine that it is more advantageous to maintain the Houthis’ capabilities (especially those with which they threaten maritime transit through the Red Sea) than to deploy them prior to publicizing their capabilities.
The risks of escalation
The Houthis have received a significant amount of attacks through airstrikes; in 2025 the U.S & Israel attacked targeting missile sites, command centres and senior leadership. Therefore, weakening some parts of their operational network.
To enter the current conflict will open the group for another attack in the future from sustained strikes by air & land. When you factor in the risks involved it makes the decision to intervene difficult.
Iran’s leadership is also looking at expanding the conflict slowly across multiple areas versus a massive and immediate regional escalation that would bring a huge amount of retaliation.
Strategic importance of the Red Sea
The Houthis’ greatest leverage against others is their location along the Red Sea. The Houthis have shown in northern Yemen they have been able to disrupt commerce and energy routes linking Asia, Europe and the Middle East.
The disruption of global trade due to attacks against vessels or other maritime infrastructure could rapidly increase the economic consequences of the war as global trade could be severely disrupted and shipping & energy prices will unfortunately rise.
Because of this, Tehran prefers to maintain the Houthis as a deterrent will escalate pressure if negotiations break down or if the war threatens to put the Iranian regime’s survival at risk.
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Possible scenarios
Analysts view two different ways the Houthis may get involved.
The first option involves a limited escalation. Under this scenario, the Houthis may conduct minor missile or drone attacks against targets or vessels associated with Israel without triggering a large-scale military response from other countries.
Under the second option, the Houthis will perform a comprehensive escalation by using their full military capabilities to disrupt shipping throughout the Red Sea and attack energy installations in the region. If they do this, it would increase global pressure on the conflict at a time of economic turmoil.
However, both of these options may lead to renewed American and Israeli military operations in Yemen, and the increase in violence may lead countries such as Saudi Arabia back into direct engagement with the Houthis.
The Houthis seem to be making a conscious decision to wait until they decide when they will launch their intervention and in some instances appear to be preserving their military capabilities and keeping their competitors in a state of uncertainty as to when or if they will intervene.
How and when they decide to intervene may be determined less by developments inside of Yemen than by how Iran perceives the larger scope of the conflict.
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