India’s policy shift has become a major topic of debate as political uncertainty deepens in Dhaka. Prime Minister Modi’s message to Khaleda Zia is evidence of this shift and provides a diplomatic rationale for Modi’s statement that “India will be there to support you.” Modi’s comments have caused extensive debate about the political situation in Bangladesh and have also been an indication that India’s policies toward Bangladesh are being re-evaluated.
Media accounts have indicated some confusion regarding Khaleda Zia’s health. Some members of the BNP claim that Khaleda Zia has experienced extreme deterioration, while others assert that her condition is stable. Chinese experts have begun working with doctors in Dhaka to treat Khaleda Zia; their involvement has added another layer of complexity to an already complex situation. Khaleda Zia continues to receive intensive medical care in Dhaka.
BNP gains relevance as Bangladesh politics transforms
India has depended on Sheikh Hasina as its closest ally for so long that this dependence has led to structural vulnerability for India. The recent events concerning Sheikh Hasina have shown India’s limitations regarding outreach. With the fall of Sheikh Hasina, there will be an increase in the ability of Islamists to fill the vacuum. There will be a growing involvement of China and Pakistan in the south. The presence of these two countries will create further complications for the region.
In addition to China and Pakistan’s growing presence, there is a growing importance of the BNP emerging as the most significant political player. The latest polls demonstrate that the BNP has gained a lot of momentum and support from the electorate. The resurgence of Jamaat will create more political instability for the BNP and the region. Jamaat’s student wing has won several elections recently, which could lead to some political instability for the BNP, and, according to analysts, there will be regional ramifications for this as well. Tharoor indicated some concerns with the returning dominance of Jamaat, which reflects India’s strategic concerns.
The BNP will be contesting the next elections without the assistance of the Jamaat. In this regard, the separation from the Jamaat may provide India with a diplomatic advantage. The current circumstances surrounding Zia will play a role in shaping the attitudes of the voters. BNP leaders anticipate that the current situation will create increased sympathy for the BNP. They are also discussing the potential return of Tarique Rahman, but there are ongoing issues related to his legal situation and travel restrictions.
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Recent Security Outreach Reflects India’s Policy Shift
Khalilur Rahman, the national security advisor for Bangladesh, recently traveled to Delhi in a low-profile manner. While in town, Khalilur Rahman met with Ajit Doval, India’s national security advisor. Neither side has provided specifics regarding what was discussed. However, despite the pressures on Dhaka to cancel the meeting, they chose to go ahead with the meeting anyway. As such, this meeting represents an improvement in diplomatic relations between the two countries; therefore, India viewed this as a positive sign for future relations and strategy.
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