India aspires to be a major power in the Indo-Pacific region. This part of the world includes critical shipping lanes and a significant share of global trade. Consequently, maritime power is a direct driver of geopolitical power. A significant reduction of Indian commerce relies on maritime trade routes—approximately 90 percent of India’s overall trade is conducted at sea. Energy imports are also transported via unprotected maritime corridors. As a result, India has a considerable need for an increased naval presence throughout its oceans.
However, India has ambitious goals that exceed its current naval capabilities. India’s strategic documents indicate larger-than-life visions of maritime capability, including deterrence, command of the sea, and regional stability. In addition to supporting maritime commerce and a rules-based order at sea, India also routinely participates in various maritime partnerships and exercises. However, there are insufficient resources (including ships) budgeted for, committed to, and/or available to meet these aspirations. Thus, analyzing its fleet levels, budgets, and infrastructure will provide a better understanding of the scope of India’s limitations in achieving its strategic goals.
Fleet size challenges facing India naval capabilities
Planners’ desires are not being met with regard to the size of the Indian Navy because of the low number of ships currently available, as opposed to the two hundred warships needed. The expansion of naval power has been hampered by delays in constructing ships. The construction of warships is very complex for domestic shipyards; therefore, naval projects are continuously over budget and take much longer to complete than expected. The construction of aircraft carriers, for example, demonstrates this issue. The indigenous aircraft carrier programmes required decades of development before they would be ready for use by the Indian military.
Additionally, since regional navies are growing significantly faster than the Indian Navy is growing, for example, China is rapidly increasing its number of surface combatants and submarines in addition to naval logistics capabilities, the strategic community is worried about the balance of naval power. Furthermore, with such a large body of water, India has a difficult time having enough ships/submarines to patrol all parts of the Indian Ocean. Consequently, the limited number of ships and submarines will lead to under-utilization of these vessels during operations.
Budget constraints and competing defence priorities
Military capabilities are directly influenced by defence budgets, particularly in the case of India, which dedicates much of its budget to land forces due to its large standing armies and recent military histories with bordering states (Pakistan and China). As such, India invests heavily in its army, while allocating much smaller portions of the budget for naval modernisation due to the high acquisition costs of naval platforms such as submarines, which require long-term budgets to support their acquisitions. Many of these acquisitions are further delayed due to budget cycles or currency fluctuations that can increase import costs.
Due to India’s need to import much of its advanced naval technology, as well as the dependence on foreign suppliers, procurement programs often take longer to execute and plan. Additionally, competing priorities will continue to influence how the government will allocate defence spending. The air force is a significant competitor with regard to receiving funding for modernisation, with the acquisition of fighter aircraft consuming large budgetary amounts and causing delays in naval growth as a result.
Industrial limits affecting India naval capabilities
There are varying levels of capacity for domestic defence manufacturing. Although India wants to improve its indigenous defence production capabilities, it will be difficult to develop an industrial ecosystem that supports them because of the complexity of advanced naval technologies. The construction of submarines illustrates the industrial problems associated with advanced naval construction projects. Unsurprisingly, the engineering expertise required to build diesel-electric submarines is specialised. Likewise, building nuclear submarines requires an extremely sophisticated industrial infrastructure.
India has been developing these capabilities over the past several decades, but the production rate still lags behind strategic needs. Furthermore, historically, there has been very little involvement by the private sector in the defence industry; the majority of major naval construction is completed by government-owned shipyards. As a consequence, innovation and efficiency advance slowly, and technology will likely continue to be sensitive when transferred from international partners. As a result, India is gradually developing independent domestic design capabilities.
Strategic partnerships and future naval development
India is establishing maritime influence increasingly through partnerships. By cooperating with regional navies, India can expand its operational reach. Joint training exercises will help ensure interoperability and strengthen strategic coordination between the navies. The Quad is an example of the increasing level of cooperation. Through naval diplomacy, India has been able to strengthen its maritime footprint in the region. Furthermore, India is investing in island facilities and logistic bases. These bases will enable India to deploy forces for longer periods of time across larger areas of the Indian Ocean.
However, partnerships cannot replace core naval capabilities. India still needs to develop a larger fleet and a stronger industrial base. Therefore, India’s long-term maritime strategy emphasises the gradual development of capabilities. Policymakers will seek to strike a balance between their ambitious goals and the resources that are available to them. Ultimately, India’s role in the Indo-Pacific will depend on continued investment in its naval capabilities.
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