Relations between Japan and China sharply declined when Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi made comments implying that Japan may retaliate with military force if China happens to attack Taiwan. After these remarks, China has initiated a massive campaign against Japan utilizing diplomatic pressure against Japan’s economy, security, and cultural ties.
This event illustrates an increasing level of tension in Asia, and this indicates a long-term political rivalry between Asia’s two largest powers.
What triggered the current dispute between China and Japan
Takaichi made the statement that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could pose an “existential threat” to Japan in November 2022. This raised the possibility of self-defense forces of Japan intervening against Chinese aggression towards Taiwan.
China has reacted strongly, claiming that Japan has violated the sovereignty of China, and China has requested that Takaichi retract her comments. Takaichi has refused to issue a formal apology for her comments and has strengthened her standing within Japan since she was re-elected in a landslide.
Her statement reflects Japan’s overall security concerns, and the geographical proximity of Taiwan to Japan’s island territories and Taiwan’s strategic importance to maintaining peace in the region were important considerations in her comments.
Japan is facing Pressure from China
China has been employing “grey”-level pressure to force Japan to do things that it would not do otherwise.
Examples of grey pressures include:
1. Economic
– China has put export restrictions on the raw earth materials and high-tech goods of Japan, which constitute the core of Japan’s electronics and manufacturing sector.
2. Tourism and Business
– China has issued a travel advisory against Chinese tourist travelling or studying in Japan; Chinese tourists represent about 25% of foreigners who travel to Japan, therefore putting pressure on Japan.
3. Military
– China has ramped up activity of warships, drones and aircraft in the vicinity of disputed islands in the East China Sea, increasing the tension of security.
4. Culture
– China has cancelled Japanese cultural events, postponed film releases, and reclaimed giant pandas from Japan’s Ueno Zoo, which captured significant public attention and made an impact on the overall Japanese public.
Japan is not likely to change its position regardless of pressures on Prime Minister Takaichi from within Japan.
Following her election victory, Takaichi appears to have significant support domestically and could increase the pace of defense reform; analysts believe she may increase the military budget to 2% of GDP and strengthen alliances with the U.S.
Japan views China’s increasing military power as a direct threat to its security—particularly given disputes over territory and the threat posed to Taiwan.
Japanese government officials argue that their defense policies are about protecting Japan’s own security—not about provoking China.
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Taiwan is the keystone issue
Taiwan is central to the tensions. China does not accept foreign involvement in the Taiwan issue while Japan believes that Taiwan’s security is essential to Japan’s own security because Taiwan is so close to Japan and is an important trading partner to Japan.
Conflict involving Taiwan could draw in the U.S. and Japan; if that were to happen there is concern that it could escalate into a larger regional war.
What is next
Experts do not believe tensions will ease as China will continue to exert economic and diplomatic pressure. In the meantime, Japan will continue to strengthen its defense cooperation with its partners and improve its military capabilities.
Neither side is seeking a large class conflict; however, neither side has expressed any willingness to compromise.
The result will be an extended strategic rivalry among the parties.
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