The Middle East is approaching cautiously an Israel-Hamas ceasefire, but Iran is at one of its weakest points since the Islamic Revolution of 1979. Tehran’s protracted dependence on its “Axis of Resistance” of allies and militant forces that fight against Israel and the United States has eroded, thanks to recent Israeli attacks in Gaza against senior figures in Hamas, Hezbollah, and the military echelons of Iran, diminishing Iran’s local presence.
“Clearly, this is not a source of pride for Iran,” International Crisis Group Iran Project director Ali Vaez added. “Its regional alliance system is in shambles, but the ‘Axis of Resistance’ remains.”
State Media Celebrates, Reality Differs
Iranian media reported the Gaza ceasefire as a Hamas victory. The war killed more than 67,000 Palestinians, the Gaza Health Ministry estimated. Iran’s Foreign Ministry welcomed “any decision… that ensures putting an end to the genocide of the Palestinians.”
But Tehran advisers suggest continued unrest. Adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei Ali Akbar Velayati cautioned that the Gaza ceasefire could fuel battles elsewhere in Lebanon, Yemen, and Iraq.
Public Fear and Military Withdrawal
Iranian nationals continue to fear Israeli attacks. A lot of the nation’s air defenses most probably were eliminated in June. Khamenei suspended his weekly public address, and Iran missed its September military remembrance observing the end of the Iran-Iraq war — an abnormal deviation from the tradition.
The economy is also suffering. “Our resources are limited, and the economy has weakened,” said Tehran analyst Saeed Leilaz. “Iran’s support to Hamas was intended to divert conflicts away from our borders.”
Iran’s Regional Gambit Falters
Most Iranians see the situation negatively. “Iran is like a broke gambler who won small cash in the early rounds,” said a Tehran university student Amir Kazemi. “At first, Iran was happy about Hamas’ rocket strikes on Israel. Now, after the ceasefire, it gets nothing.”
Since its revolution, Iran had tried to export its Shiite ideology. Post-1980s war with Iraq, it concentrated on deterring American-supported Arab armies. The “Axis of Resistance” reached its high point following the 2003 US invasion of Iraq, drawing on Hezbollah, Assad’s Syria, the Houthis, Iraqi militias, and even Sunni Hamas.
Shifting Power in the Middle East
Today, the Middle East is much different. Assad struggles against insurgency, Israel eliminated top Hezbollah and Hamas leaders, Iraqi militias saw their influence diminish, and the Houthis contend with accurate Israeli attacks. In addition, Iran’s nuclear program was probably halted by the June war.
Even though Iran has provided oil to China and drones to Russia, it has seen little tangible support. Internally, protests in opposition to the hijab increase, while executions increase, which shows internal instability.
The ceasefire indicates Tehran’s waning regional influence,” explained Ali Fathollah-Nejad, director of the Centre for Middle East and Global Order. “Israel is able to now shift military attention against Iranian assets in Lebanon or Iran proper.
While President Donald Trump lauded the ceasefire as “terrific” news, public nuclear talks with Tehran haven’t been restarted. “Time is not on Iran’s side,” Vaez said, “but nobody presents them with a clear exit. Tehran’s leaders continue to argue over the next step.” https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/gulf-and-arabian-peninsula/iran
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