The wave of nation-wide protests in Iran is going from strength to strength due to the worsening economic situation in the country, imposed sanctions from the international community, and an internet and telecommunication shut down imposed by the Iranian Government. The strength of the Iranian regime is being challenged at a time when the nation’s foreign relations are under immense strain.
Scale: Over 500 reported protests have taken place in the 31 provinces by the Human Rights Activists News Agency in the USA.
Deaths and Arrests: At least 65 people have died, while there have been 2,300 arrests.
Visibility: There has been very little coverage coming from state-controlled media. The media professionals have also been limited by the state-controlled movement and reporting. The nation-wide shutdown of the internet has ensured a significant absence of live coverage.
However, despite the warnings by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei himself that “rioters must be put in their place,” the protests have not stopped.
What was the reason behind the outbreak of these pro-economic reforms’ rallies?
- Free Fall of the Currency: The Iranian Rial has hit a record low against the US Dollar at more than 1.4 million.
- High Inflation Rate: The rate of inflation in the country is very high. In addition, it should be noted that the average annual rate of inflation in the country is 40%.
- Fuel Price Shock: The prices that the state pays for the subsidized gasoline were increased in the month of December. Secondly, the prices will now be reviewed every quarter.
- Food prices: The Central Bank of the country has abolished the differential exchange rate for most imported commodities. This is expected to boost food prices.
The first protest in late December in the Iranian capital, Tehran, escalated into a nationwide situation. The statements about the economy in the chants had shifted into anti-government statements, which had previously been seen in other situations of unrest, including the Iran Mahsa Amini in 2022.
Some people in the crowd have called for the exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, who recently called for a protest.
Why has Iran restricted the internet?
- The internet and telephone shutdown has a lot of functions, including:
- Trigger a disruption in the coordination among protesters.
- Keep documentation of security force activities limited.
- Control the narrative: fewer independent news reports, fewer viral news clips.
Iran has also used these tactics in other waves of protests in the past, which give Iran an earful of complaints from human rights organizations. Nonetheless, they have damped the momentum of protests, at least temporarily.
- The regional alliances of Iran weakened.
- Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” is under severe strain.
- Hamas shattered in the Gaza conflict against Israel.
- Consequently, it has lost most of its senior officials and its military strength.
- Bashar Assad, Tehran’s key agent in Syria, overthrown in December 2024 after several years of conflict.
In Yemen, the Houthi rebellion has been a victim of assault by the United States and the state of Israel. Iran continues to sell its oil to China but has not provided military support. Russia has not provided military support but has been using Iranian drones in the war in Ukraine.
Why the nuclear issue continues to be so prominent
Iran had been enriching uranium to weapons-grade levels before the strikes by the U.S. in June. There has been a decrease in Iranian cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency. The IAEA finds the Iranian government theoretically capable of making 10 bombs if it wanted to go for military use of this program.
U.S. intelligence believes that while Iran yet to proceed with the manufacture of the weapon, Iranian actions have reduced the time frame if that decision is ever made.
Iran has announced in the past few weeks that it has stopped enrichment activities across the country. This indicated its readiness to talk. Since the conflict in June, there have been no meaningful dialogue processes.
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Why U.S. -Iran relations are once again at a breaking point
The Iranian-American relationship has been tense for several decades, with events such as the Iranian Islamic Revolution of 1979, the holding of American Embassy Hostages, and Proxy Wars throughout the Middle East.
Tensions escalated again after U.S. President Donald Trump warned Iran that if peaceful protesters killed in the process of oppressing demonstrations by force, the U.S. would “take it very hard.” This warning is significant, especially after the U.S. military apprehended Venezuela President Nicolás Maduro, an Iranian close ally.
While it had helped that there was more diplomatic engagement following the Iran nuclear agreement in 2015, its withdrawal from that agreement in 2018 has brought back sanctions, setting the stage for today’s crisis.
What happens next?
Short term: Protest actions will probably persist in spite of communications blackouts. Security forces seem intent on regaining control.
Sanctions imposed upon Iran by international powers, including Barack Obama’s sanctions against Iran’s ballistic program, have led to
Strategic Risk: A combination of internal turmoil, a weakened Asian security network, and unaddressed nuclear programm issues is dangerous.
Iran’s leadership, however, finds itself in a position that is more than just another protest, but a juncture where economic desperation, political legitimacy, and isolation are coming together. The response to it will shape the coming years.
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