The parliamentary calculation in India could be changing faster than many anticipated. Following the exit of seven Members of Parliament from the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) as they moved to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is closer to being the dominant force in the Rajya Sabha with implications for legislative politics over the next several months.
Although the immediate impact is numerical, the ramifications will also be strategic. With the support of the seven MPs who defected, the strength of the BJP in the Upper House will increase from 106 to 113, leaving it just over 10 seats short of a simple majority of 123 with 244 total seats in the House of Rajya Sabha. The overall picture, however, is very different when you account for the coalition. When you add in its allies, the NDA will have 149 total seats, factoring in local partners, nominated members and independents.
Therefore, by definition, the NDA has already crossed the threshold for a majority and will have far greater confidence in its ability to push through major pieces of legislation through the Rajya Sabha — where it has traditionally struggled to do so.
Numbers that change the balance
The story of the NDA’s ascendance does not end here. The Rajya Sabha elections scheduled for later this year could further alter the balance. As of May, 34 seats will become vacant—23 in May and 11 in November—and projections indicate that the BJP and its allies will likely secure around 20 of them.If those predictions come to fruition, the NDA will be getting even closer to the two-thirds majority required by the Constitution (163 seats).
For the Opposition, this represents a major weakening of their hand in the Rajya Sabha. The Rajya Sabha has historically been a check on the power of the government, especially when there has been a united opposition. The defeat in the Lok Sabha of the women’s reservation amendment bill is a very good example of this: by coordinating their votes, the opposition was able to block the government’s plans.
The emerging numbers within the Rajya Sabha suggest that the NDA will have a more difficult time maintaining its resistance without the full two-thirds majority. However, the NDA will still be able to call upon the support of the YSR Congress Party and other parties to provide issue-based support, which the YSR Congress Party has provided to the NDA on all of its major votes.
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Implications of the Aam Aadmi Party
The Aam Aadmi Party is suffering the largest political consequences from the events occurring recently as it was previously the fourth largest party in the Rajya Sabha with 10 MPs. The party now has 3 Members of Parliament which carries specific practical implications.
The core of political influence in India’s Parliament is the ability to correlate numbers with parliamentary presence. A reduction in strength will lead to a decrease in speaking time and reduced representation on committees, as well as having diminished weight at all-party discussions. In some instances, parties without 5 or more Members of Parliament will be unable to participate in key meetings.
Outlook for the Future
The growing strength of the NDA (National Democratic Alliance) in the Rajya Sabha shows that there is a shift away from legislative restrictions towards relative control. This is unlike the approximately equal parliamentary challenge faced by the government in the Lok Sabha, which continues to be the difficulty with respect to the opposition’s parliamentary challenge, and to some extent, among Members of Parliament in both Houses.
If these trends continue, India is likely approaching an environment in which the government will have a lower number of institutional obstacles to fulfilling its objectives, both in passing ordinary legislation and potentially constitutional changes, and has long-lasting political and policy implications.
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