In a two-day series of U.S.-mediated peace talks in Abu Dhabi, Russia and Ukraine have made only one significant achievement: the expectant agreement on mutually exchanging 157 prisoners each using emergency channels. In making this achievement, the negotiators were able to create new expectations, though the distance from coming together generally still seems very far away.
Nonetheless, U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff has called the negotiations “very productive and detailed”, but warned, “greatly productive dialogue [has encountered] extreme difficulties in the past and that a lot of significant work still needs to occur before either side can come together to really agree on a full peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine”.
More Serious Attempts
These meetings were held in the United Arab Emirates and were significantly supported by Washington. They brought together senior military and intelligence officials from both sides, signalling a more serious effort than earlier rounds.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy indicated that the two sides would soon meet again, noting that their earlier meetings had gone well even though they were not successful thus far. He stated that, without any deals from previous meetings being made real, he continued to hold out the hope that a legally binding security agreement would be part of any future Russian-Ukraine peace settlement to avoid future Russian aggression.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the talks were unprecedented in recent months, noting that technical military teams from both countries were directly engaging for the first time in a long period.
Russia’s representative Kirill Dmitriev also stated that he sees “forward movement” in their discussions.
War continues despite diplomacy
Despite both sides using positive terminology, there are still significant political and territorial disputes that prevent either side from making any progress in the negotiations.
Russia insists on Ukraine withdrawing from all territory in the Donbas region, including Ukrainian-held land. Russia also has placed limitations on Ukraine’s military and restrictions on Western military involvement.
Ukraine has rejected these demands. Ukrainian representatives have put forth the terms for a cessation of hostilities as the current military front lines exist today but will not agree to a unilateral withdrawal from major military strong points in the eastern portion of its country.
It was still unclear if Putin would come to the negotiating table with any intent to compromise, since Putin has repeatedly stated that Russia is winning the war and will continue to fight until Ukraine agrees to accept Russia’s conditions.
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Despite diplomatic efforts, combat continues
Fighting along the 1,200-kilometre-long front line continued throughout the duration of last week’s talks, with Russian air and drone attacks and Ukrainian attacks on Russian military sites continuing despite their dialogues. As well, Russia has put pressure on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, leading to widespread power outages and worsening humanitarian conditions, according to Kyiv and its allies; they say these attacks are intended to diminish the morale of civilian populations.
Ukraine continues to seek advanced air-defence systems with a proposal to exchange drone technology for missiles or fighter jets from its partners.
Limited progress, fragile momentum
Analysts say that the prisoner exchange represents a sign of limited cooperation that has taken place since September after months of this type of cooperation being stalled diplomatically. However, they warn that the exchange of humanitarian prisoners does not show evidence of political compromise.
During the nearly four years of war, approximately 20% of the territory of Ukraine is controlled by Russian forces; this includes Crimea and eastern Ukraine. Estimates of both military and civilian casualties are in the hundreds of thousands and continue to rise.
While the Abu Dhabi talks have opened lines of communication, without progress on issues of territory, security guarantees, and sovereignty, a sustainable agreement for a peace cannot be made at this time.
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