Russia has always been one of the most powerful nations in the world. They’ve helped to defeat empires, created borders and have played a crucial role in developing the modern international system. From the time of the Tsars to the Soviet Union and into the future, Russia has projected its influence well beyond its borders.
That all appears to be changing at this time.
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was intended to signal to the world how strong they were militarily. Instead, when the 2022 invasion began to expose Russia’s serious military, economic and political failures, analysts began to ask the more significant question of whether or not Russia should remain a leading global power.
What defines a great power?
In international relations, a great power typically represents a country that can shape and influence global affairs, withstand or resist external rival pressures, and influence events throughout the world. To accomplish all this, a nation typically needs to have: a significant and professional military force or ability to project military power, a very large economy, an extensive and strategic diplomatic outreach, and a high level of political legitimacy.
Based on those important and widely-used criteria, Russia presents a somewhat mixed picture.
Geographically, it remains unrivaled. Russia covers 11 different time zones and shares borders with 14 different nations, offering an incredible amount of depth in terms of strategic depth. In addition, while the population remains extremely large, at approximately 145 million people, they have been experiencing long-term demographic decline.
In terms of its economy, Russia remains behind most of the world’s more powerful countries. Russia has a smaller GDP than Japan or Germany, due mainly to its reliance on its natural resources such as oil, natural gas and mining. This reliance on natural resources makes it vulnerable to sanctions and price fluctuations.
From empire to resurgence
Russia first established itself as a major force in the world during the 18th century under Tsars empire. After the Bolshevik Revolution in 1917, it became the centre of the Soviet Union, which became a rival power to the United States during the Cold War.
As one of the original permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, both the Soviet Union and its successor, Russia have created a significant influence in global institutions.
After the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia entered into a period of decline under President Boris Yeltsin, marked by economic disarray and political instability.
Under President Vladimir Putin since the year 2000, centralized power has been restored, reforms in the military have been enacted, and energy exports have been used as leverage. Russia has also joined BRICS to establish itself as a challenger to Western dominance.
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Ukraine and exposed weaknesses
The fighting in Ukraine has been a turning point in the ability of Russia to regain its status as a superpower.
Rather than providing Russia with a quick victory, the war has resulted in a series of heavy losses, a failure to coordinate logistics, and increased support from the West for Ukraine. After two years of fighting, Russia has yet to establish control over Ukraine.
The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has hindered economic development, while additional sanctions, inflation, and restricted access to modern-day technology have hurt long-term prospects for growth. Russia is more reliant than ever on a smaller group of partners such as China.
Despite the current circumstances, Russia should not be underestimated.
It has a wealth of natural resource reserves; a large global intelligence architecture; diplomatic presence in many regions; expertise in cyberwarfare, as well as disinformation; and enormous nuclear capabilities.
These strengths provide Russia with the continually needed global leverage to generate interest and concern about its global role. However, great powers today aren’t simply about weaponry. They have to demonstrate innovative economies, cutting-edge technologies, and soft powers to succeed. Russia is behind in each of these key areas.
The Russian technology industry lags behind its major competitors; the Russian economy is poorly diversified; and the cultural and political influence of Russia has faded significantly in neighboring countries.
The growing dependence on China undermines its autonomy as a power and raises the question of whether Russia becoming a subordinate power rather than a global leader.
What does this mean?
Russia is neither a great power today, nor is it a small power.
Despite its continued security and diplomatic strength and ability to disrupt global politics and protect its national interests, Russia’s ability to be an inspiring leader and to shape the global order has greatly declined.
Although Russia is not a dominant power anymore, it is still powerful enough that no country can afford to ignore it. In the new world order, Russia is a contested great power: it has influence and is resilient, but it is increasingly constrained by the limits of its own strength.
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