U.S. Supreme Court review of President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff powers has thrown global trade into uncertainty. The justices are reviewing the constitutionality of Trump’s reliance on the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA, in imposing broad import taxes.
If the court rules against him, it could curb one of his most aggressive trade tools-but experts say the White House still has several ways to keep tariffs alive.
“It’s hard to see any scenario where tariffs end,” said Kathleen Claussen, a professor of trade law at Georgetown University. “Trump could rebuild his entire tariff structure using other statutes.”
What Happens if Trump Loses the Case
A ruling against Trump would cut the U.S. average effective tariff rate from nearly 18% to about 6.5%, according to Bloomberg Economics — its lowest level since before Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs.
That would alleviate pressure on economies like China, India, and Brazil, which were among the biggest targets. But Trump can still turn to five key trade laws to continue imposing tariffs: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/us-supreme-court-skeptical-of-trump-tariffs/articleshow/125138764.cms
Law Reason for Tariff Duration Tariff Limit Investigation Needed
- Section 232: Allows tariffs on imports considered a national security threat.
- Section 201 allows imposition of tariffs to protect domestic industries that have been injured by imports. Usually, such protection is limited to four years and can be extended to eight years.
- Section 301: Targets unfair trade practices or violations of U.S. trade rights.
- Sec. 122 allows short-term tariffs to be applied up to 15% of an amount eligible for relief in the event of a balance-of-payments problem.
- Section 338 – A 1930s-era law allowing tariffs of up to 50% against countries discriminating against U.S. commerce.
China: Fragile Truce
China, still Trump’s top trade rival, saw exports to the U.S. shrink 17% this year to $317 billion. A temporary truce between Trump and President Xi Jinping cut tariffs by 10% and paused new ones for a year.
Analysts say this indicates that tensions will not dissipate. “U.S.-China rivalry is structural, not temporary,” said Trinh Nguyen, economist at Natixis SA. “Firms are reorganizing supply chains based on geopolitics, not tariffs.”
Chinese state media have sought to downplay the implications of the case, and officials have signaled that even if the Supreme Court rules against Trump, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will maintain tariffs at their current levels.
Asia and ASEAN: Uneven Fallout
In comparison, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan are relatively insulated in North Asia owing to existing trade agreements and high-tech exports largely exempt from most of the U.S. tariffs. For instance, Taiwan’s semiconductor-driven exports have surged amidst the AI boom and offset losses from China.
By comparison, Southeast Asia has greater exposure: U.S. imports from ASEAN countries surged to $45 billion as manufacturers shifted production from China. If tariffs come down, more goods could start entering U.S. markets. However, Trump has threatened fresh semiconductor tariffs of as high as 300% that could disrupt regional supply chains.
India: Holding Its Ground
India’s tariff rate of 50% is among the highest in the world, and it has been negotiating a cut. Officials in New Delhi say a Supreme Court setback for Trump won’t derail talks as the U.S. could still use non-tariff barriers or other trade laws.
“This ruling would strengthen India’s case for a WTO-compliant and legally binding trade pact,” a senior trade official said. “It gives New Delhi more leverage to ensure predictability.”
Europe: Difficult Compromise
The European Union reached a deal with Washington in July that capped tariffs at 15% on most EU goods and lowered some duties on U.S. exports. Yet Brussels remains wary of Trump’s 50% steel and aluminum tariffs, and is pressing for a sunset clause to limit their duration.
EU officials are concerned that, even if the IEEPA tariffs were declared invalid, Trump could pivot to other authorities – such as Section 232 – and restart transatlantic trade tensions.
Trump’s Tariff Toolbox
Even without IEEPA, Trump can still act under
- Section 301: for “unfair” trade practices, used heavily against China.
- Section 232 – imports considered to be “national security threats.”
- Section 338: a Depression-era law which allows for 50% tariffs without investigation, now under active consideration. “To be the first president to use it could have some cache,” said John Veroneau, former USTR counsel. “Smoot-Hawley may be infamous, but Trump sees power where others see caution.”
Outlook: Protectionism Persists Whatever the ruling, most analysts agree that the tariff era is far from over.
To the Trump administration, tariffs are essential to preserve U.S. manufacturing and a bargaining chip in trade diplomacy. “The president will always have tools that cause economic pain,” said Stratos Pahis of Brooklyn Law School. “Even if the Supreme Court narrows his powers, America’s protectionist turn is here to stay.”
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