US Iran war fears are rising again despite recent nuclear negotiations, as military deployments and diplomatic deadlock increase the risk of conflict between the two countries.
Initially, the US and Iranian delegations, led by US envoy Steven Witkoff, Jared Kushner, and their Iranian counterparts in Geneva appeared to have engaged in promising discussions. The US and Iran each described the discussions as constructive with the foreign minister of Iran commenting that “guiding principles” were understood between both sides, and that Washington would agree that progress had been made.
However, the optimism surrounding those discussions has already diminished significantly.
With a very large deployment of US forces in the region; many observers are very concerned about the potential for military conflict between the US and Iran.
In the last few days, the US has deployed hundreds of fighter aircraft, air refuelers and two carrier strike groups closer to Iran, including USS Gerald R. Ford (the largest aircraft carrier in the world) Military analysts say the presence of refueling tankers suggests preparations for a sustained air campaign rather than limited strikes.
Military analysts infer that the deployment of air refuelers indicates preparations for a long duration air campaign as opposed to short duration air strikes.
This represents one of the largest mobilizations of US military forces in the Middle East since the invasion of Iraq in 2003.
Historically, large deployments of US military forces have been preceded by military action even though US leadership has publicly supported diplomatic means of addressing the conflict.
Nuclear disagreement remains the biggest obstacle
The Trump administration is insisting on a complete cessation of Iran’s domestic uranium enrichment program because it has the potential to produce nuclear weapons.
Iran, on the other hand, argues that it has the right under international treaties to enrich uranium for peaceful power-generation purposes. Additionally, Iran rejects the Trump administration’s demand to limit its missile program and discontinue military assistance to groups such as Hezbollah.
The continuing friction between the US and Iran regarding these issues has led to a deadlocked situation where neither side is prepared to make meaningful sacrifices.
There are several factors that are increasing the likelihood for a military confrontation between the US and Iran:
- Diplomatic frustration – After several rounds of negotiations, there is no progress to speak of.
- Political pressure – The Trump administration has demonstrated that it is willing to use military force at times when negotiations are taking place and has shown that diplomacy is not necessarily a barrier to military conflict.
- Strategic leverage – A continued build-up of military assets puts pressure on Iran to comply with US demands.
- There are reports that the US is considering a long-term bombing campaign as a way to weaken the Iranian leadership and/or remove them from power.
In the event of military action against Iranian targets, it would likely begin with airstrikes directed at Iran’s nuclear program and related facilities, missile launch sites, and military capabilities.
The ramifications of a possible war extending past Iran.
Potential ramifications of war include:
- A disruption in global oil markets.
- Regional war throughout the Middle Eastern region.
- Other major powers becoming involved.
Iran has an extensive military capacity and numerous regional allies, so the outcome of any potential conflict would be highly unpredictable and possibly lengthy.
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The larger question: diplomacy or conflict?
Although decreasing levels of tensions between the two sides indicate an actual negotiating level still exists, it may still be possible that both sides can continue to seek diplomatic solutions.
At the same time, there is substantial historical evidence that military actions may take place even when there are ongoing negotiations.
At this point in time, the actual situation remains uncertain, but the combination of military preparation, lack of progress in diplomatic negotiations, and mutual distrust has raised the threat level of a US/Iran confrontation higher than it has been for many years.
What happens next in one of the world’s most unstable regions will decide whether the future brings peace or war.
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