Bihar Polls: Crucial Seats to Decide Bihar’s Next CM – Will Nitish Survive or Will BJP Take Charge?
Bihar Polls 2025 are shaping up to be one of the most decisive elections in the state’s political history. The big question is – will Nitish Kumar prove his case of being the chief minister, or will the BJP take charge in the ruling alliance? Union Home Minister Amit Shah said earlier that the legislative party will choose the next chief minister after the elections, which has led to speculation across the state. Most now believe that if NDA gains power, the BJP may search for a means to diminish Nitish. Political analysts, however, believe this is unlikely in the present power dynamic.
Inside the Seat Tussle in Bihar Polls 2025 Between JD(U), RJD, and BJP
In these upcoming elections, Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) or JD(U) is in the fight for 101 seats. The opposition INIDA bloc – comprised of RJD, Congress, Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP), and the Left parties – has left five of these seats open, which leads to a direct contest of 96 seats. Of these 96 seats, 59 are head-to-head battles of JD(U) vs. RJD. Including the Left in the frame would lead to a greater sum of battles, 71 if combined.
The 71 constituencies are crucial to deciding Bihar’s next government, and it’s believed that the people from these constituencies are least likely to desert the BJP. Political analyst S.M. Diwakar said that historically, Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav have typically shaped Bihar’s politics toward simple contests, with the goal of continuing to keep the BJP out.
In the 2020 elections, 71 constituencies experienced direct JD(U)-RJD confrontations. The RJD won 48 and had a 67.6% success rate, while the JD(U) won 21 and only has a 29% success rate. The Mahagathbandhan ended up with 110, 12 short of a majority.
For detailed election updates and candidate lists, visit the Election Commission of India’s official website.
Chirag and Kushwaha Give Hope to JD(U)
One of the prime contributing causes to the total loss of seats in 2020 was Chirag Paswan and Upendra Kushwaha running their independent campaigns, leading to extreme vote splits. In fact, Chirag cost the NDA 42 seats, with 36 of those being JD(U) losses. Kushwaha, running independently, contributed to a further five losses. Thus, in total, Chirag and Kushwaha cost the JD(U) 41 seats.
In this situation, Paswan and Kushwaha are again on board with the NDA, which will likely impact Bihar’s electoral politics again. Experts feel that they may be able to unify Dalit and Koeri voters, which would increase JD(U)’s chances in the critical constituencies. Diwakar observed that this intervention might be a rebalancing opportunity for the alliance to potentially improve overall performance for Nitish.
13 long-lost Lok Janshakti Party (RV) constituencies
The Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) or LJP (RV) party under Chirag Paswan is the third-largest partner of the NDA, with 29 seats. Reports suggest that the BJP deployed this allocation to put pressure on Nitish, although modifications were ultimately made. Of the 29 constituencies, 26 were lost by the NDA in 2020. 13 out of those constituencies had been unwinnable for the past 15 years, throughout three election cycles.
Outlook: Will Nitish stand?
Despite the internal dilemmas, experts suggest that the BJP isn’t likely to unseat Nitish Kumar even if it sweeps the polls. His regional domain and the ability to consolidate ally parties hold him as one of the most electorally acceptable faces of the alliance in Bihar. If the BJP attempts to unseat him, Nitish will also have the potential to shift towards the RJD, a decision that could fully reorient the multifaceted, convoluted political setup in Bihar.
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