Currently, there is some indication from the Iranian side that they may be willing to look at the situation regarding some of their enriched uranium stockpile possibly moving to another country. This has the potential to advance Iranian negotiations with the U.S., based on media reports. In addition, Iranian and Pakistani representatives had discussions at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit in Bishkek before these indications.
However, there are still considerable differences between the U.S. and Iran as to how to deal with Iran’s nuclear program. Therefore, this indication can be interpreted as mostly a confidence-building measure rather than an end to negotiations. Continuing mediation efforts are underway in the region, but both sides remain relatively quiet with regard to their respective sides of the ceasefire; this means both countries are still communicating with one another, despite the existence of significant differences. This means there remain instances where uranium is being used as a topic for negotiation.
Pakistan plays a growing mediation role between Tehran and Washington
Reports first suggested that Mohsin Naqvi met with Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni in Bishkek. It was reported that during this meeting, Iran said it would consider transferring parts of its enriched uranium stockpile to a third nation via Pakistan. Since February, Pakistan has been facilitating discussions between Tehran and Washington. Because of this, Islamabad has become an important mediator in efforts to reduce tensions in the region. As such, the recent communications could signify a small diplomatic opening between the two countries via Pakistan. Therefore, Pakistan’s mediation efforts are now even more important.
Iran Uranium Stockpile Remains the Core Obstacle in Nuclear Negotiations
Furthermore, there are significant disagreements between the U.S. and Iran regarding Iran’s uranium stockpiles. The U.S. government continues to assert that Iran needs to resolve issues related to its enriched uranium stockpiles. Iran has refused numerous U.S. proposals to take direct control of or transfer the uranium to another country. Reports indicate that discussions also include the potential for the release of Iranian assets held in foreign banks. As a result, negotiations regarding the uranium have been tied to broader political and economic issues. Thus, progress on the uranium issue could lead to progress on several other areas of contention. Therefore, the nuclear file continues to be the primary barrier to achieving a broader agreement.
IAEA raises concerns over monitoring and verification
Despite the challenges to technical and verification, technical complexity has made this task very difficult. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has said enriching uranium is possible from a technical standpoint, but that it is a very complicated process. The IAEA inspection team is also warning that there have been increasing difficulties in monitoring some aspects of Iran’s nuclear program. As of January 31, 2008, the IAEA estimates that there are approximately 440.9 kg of low-enriched uranium in Iran. While this quantity of uranium is still below the weapons-grade level, it is closer to being considered weapons-grade by technical standards.
As a result, verification and transparency remain a concern for the international community. Therefore, near-future agreements with Iran will probably necessitate a strong verification mechanism for monitoring compliance. Therefore, technical oversight and diplomacy must advance simultaneously for negotiations to yield positive results.
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