Iran’s new proposal creates a new phase of diplomatic resolution in conjunction with an ongoing period of unresolved issues due to frustrating years of high tension regarding complicated economic, military and trade expectations, with sanctions imposed by the US; as well as ongoing confusion over maritime boundaries, and other unresolved areas of concern such as the ongoing conflict in Iraq/Afghanistan; and how the two states communicate and interact with each other; will further test the continued opportunity to successfully achieve a compromise solution using negotiations as a tool of communications.
The proposals have been provided via intermediary channels. Due to this continuing level of distrust between the two countries, both countries continue to maintain a cautious posture toward potential diplomatic opportunities for resolution.
Iran 14-Point Proposal Centers on Sanctions Relief and Sovereignty
President Masoud Pezeshkian made Iran’s response to an earlier US proposal. He said, “Iran will never submit to any power.” Iran argues that an agreement must include both sanctions removal and other issues. Iran claims the US is willing to consider waiving OFAC sanctions while negotiating a deal; thus, removing sanctions is a key confidence-building measure. Iran continues to use the idea of sovereignty and pride in their negotiations with the US and, therefore, must have economic concessions to make progress toward a diplomatic resolution. Thus, the sanctions issue is central to the current negotiations.
Strait of Hormuz control adds strategic weight to negotiations
The ongoing issue of Iran’s influence in the Hormuz Strait is a point of contention between Iran and the United States. Iran has called for an end to U.S. port blockades and has created the Persian Gulf Strait Authority to oversee shipping activity through the waterway. The Authority has mandatory confirmation for transit, meaning that effective diplomacy with all vessel owners must occur prior to allowing any vessel to transit through the waterway. With shipping and maritime governance now being directly affected by diplomatic agreements, Iran is now attempting to entrench its control in these maritime regions during wartime. Therefore, Hormuz will continue to influence energy prices as well as international diplomatic negotiations. Maritime sovereignty remains a key lever in Iran’s strategic agenda.
Diplomatic channels remain active despite enduring strategic differences
Washington and Tehran remain divided over many issues, especially nuclear and regional security. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has confirmed via Spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei that ongoing talks between the two governments will continue through Pakistan. The negotiations also consist of both sides exchanging new drafts and correcting errors in previous drafts. While neither party has made any progress toward agreements in the last few weeks, each party continues to test the other’s willingness to compromise with its proposals. Diplomacy in the upcoming weeks will be very important, and could determine if these ongoing discussions result in a long-term agreement based on Iran’s most recent 14-point plan.
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